Market Monitor Trends BMO (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and Breadth June 23

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – June 20, 2025 (After Market Close)

SPY, QQQ and IWM: still within their short-term trading range.

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $580
• Next Resistance at $610
• Volume: above Average (50)
• Pattern: Bearish Engulfing Candle

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $520
• Next Resistance at $540
• Volume: Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $210 & $205
• Next Resistance at $215 & $230
• Volume: Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – June 20, 2025 (After Market Close)

Breathless Breadth Before the Bombs

Friday’s closing data, dated June 20, offered an eerily prescient snapshot of a market already on edge, days before news of the U.S. strike on Iran would break. The mood was sour, and the internals made that crystal clear.

From daily advance-decline ratios to longer-term trend signals, the picture was one of rising caution and faltering momentum.

The Numbers Don't Lie And They Weren’t Pretty

The advance-decline ratio flipped back to bearish territory: only 41.8% of stocks advanced on Friday, while 55.8% declined. That drop in advancers confirmed the bearish pivot we saw midweek, and came just two days after a brief bounce to 55.6% advancing (June 18).

It's now safe to say: that rebound had no staying power.

Looking at weekly breadth, the deterioration was even sharper. Only 28.2% of stocks showed net gains over the past five sessions. That’s down from 32% the day before and nearly half the 47.4% reading on June 16.

On the flipside, 71.1% of stocks were in decline territory for the week, an unmistakable shift toward risk-off behavior.

The SMA(50)+ Trend Is Rolling Over

Perhaps the most telling indicator: the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day simple moving average (SMA) slipped again to 68.9%. Just two weeks ago, that figure was hovering around 78%.

It might not seem like a huge swing at first glance, but in breadth terms, that’s a notable loss in technical participation.

It means that fewer stocks are holding up technically, even if major indexes still appear relatively stable on the surface. This erosion in medium-term momentum often precedes broader corrections.

Monthly Breadth: A Tug of War Emerges

Over the monthly window, 63.5% of stocks remain positive, versus 35.9% in the red. But that’s less comforting than it sounds. The bulls have lost grip, on June 10, nearly 72% of stocks were higher month-to-date. The monthly trend remains net-positive, but it’s losing steam quickly.

Comparison to the Day Before: The Slow Fade

While Wednesday (June 18) gave us a slightly more neutral tone, 55.6% advancers vs 40.8% decliners, the erosion was already underway in the weekly and monthly numbers. The drop in stocks above key moving averages and the declining number of high-momentum stocks warned that participation was thinning.

That thinning, quiet, gradual, and subtle, is how markets often weaken before a bigger jolt. Friday’s breadth confirmed that many investors had already started stepping to the sidelines, even before missiles entered the headlines.

What’s the Takeaway?

Market breadth, especially over multiple timeframes, is whispering what price alone might not yet show: this rally is fraying. It’s no surprise that on a day when macro news was still “contained” to inflation talk and trade tension headlines, the market was already flashing stress signals.

Now, with the geopolitical narrative flipped on its head over the weekend, breadth may go from a whisper to a scream. All eyes Monday will be on follow-through, or breakdown.

One thing’s clear: this isn’t the time to chase highs. It's time to listen to what the underlying internals are telling us. And right now, they’re saying: “Risk is rising.”

Kristoff - Co-founder, ChartMill

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Next to read: Market Monitor News, June 23