Wall Street Cheers Nebius-Microsoft Megadeal While Apple Misses the Mark

Nebius Takes the Spotlight, Apple Fades to the Background

If Wall Street handed out Oscars, Nebius (NBIS | +46.03%) would’ve swept the night.

The Amsterdam-based AI company, a spin-off of Yandex’s cloud division, secured a monster $17.4 billion deal with Microsoft (MSFT | -0.18%) to provide AI cloud infrastructure through 2031. That was enough to send shares soaring nearly 50% during Tuesday's session, pushing the year-to-date gain to an eye-watering 131%.

What’s behind this surge?

Nebius, now headquartered in Amsterdam after distancing itself from its Russian origins, is rapidly gaining credibility as a serious AI infrastructure player. Heavyweights like Nvidia and Jeff Bezos’s personal investment firm have taken positions in the company.

With ambitions expanding faster than its data centers can keep up, CEO Arkady Volozh signaled the company is eyeing fresh capital to fund the growth spurt.

It’s hard to overstate what a statement this deal is, not just for Nebius, but for the AI infrastructure race more broadly. Microsoft isn’t betting small, and the market is paying attention.

Apple’s Big Reveal Leaves Investors Unmoved

On the flip side, Apple (AAPL | -1.42%) didn’t get the reaction it was hoping for at its latest product event, despite dubbing it “Awe Dropping.”

The tech giant unveiled its iPhone 17 lineup, including the slimmer, more durable “iPhone 17 Air,” alongside upgraded smartwatches and AirPods. But despite improvements and even price hikes on the Pro models, investors weren’t impressed.

The core issue? The smartphone market is maturing, especially in critical regions like China where competition is fierce. Apple kept its base model at $799 in the U.S., likely to avoid pricing out consumers, while raising the Pro's price tag to $999.

Still, the stock fell 1.5%, a sign that Wall Street is growing skeptical that iterative hardware updates alone can reignite growth.

Labor Market Softens, Fuel for Fed Easing?

Markets also took their cue from fresh data suggesting the U.S. labor market is cooling more than previously thought. The Bureau of Labor Statistics now estimates that job growth for the 12 months ending in March 2025 will be revised down by 911,000 jobs, a significant adjustment.

This gives new ammunition to the doves at the Fed. A cooling job market typically opens the door for rate cuts, and many on Wall Street are already pricing in a 25-basis-point trim at next week’s FOMC meeting.

But not everyone is cheering. As Chris Zaccarelli from Northlight Asset Management warned, a weak labor market paired with sticky inflation could spark fears of stagflation.

Oracle Rockets After-Hours, Klarna IPO Ahead

Outside of the usual suspects, Oracle (ORCL | +0.22%) surged more than 21% after-hours following stronger-than-expected results and a bullish outlook for its AI-driven cloud services.

This after-hours jump could be a sign that the market is once again pivoting toward enterprise tech, especially when AI is involved.

Meanwhile, Swedish payments firm Klarna is set to make its U.S. market debut Wednesday in New York. With a targeted IPO price range of $35–$37 per share, the fintech unicorn could spark sympathy moves in Affirm (AFRM | +1.06%), PayPal (PYPL | -0.71%), and European peers like Adyen and Worldline.

Other Movers to Watch

Tourmaline Bio (TRML | +68.01%) surged after Novartis (NVS | -0.56%) announced a $1.4 billion acquisition.

FuelCell Energy (FCEL | +24.82%) doubled revenue but also nearly tripled its loss, yet the market focused on the top line.

Dell Technologies (DELL | -1.94%) slid after longtime CFO Yvonne McGill announced her departure.

Final Thoughts

We’re in that delicate period where macroeconomic softness is seen as bullish, until it isn’t. The upcoming CPI print could make or break this rally.

If inflation surprises to the upside, expect the tone to shift quickly. But for now, optimism still has the upper hand.

I'll be watching tomorrow’s Klarna IPO and, of course, Thursday’s inflation report like a hawk. Buckle up, it’s going to be an interesting week.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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