Breadth Holds Up Despite Slower Momentum

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – September 05, 2025 (After Market Close)

US index-ETFs stayed close to home just before the weekend

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $640 - $630
• Next Resistance at $650
• Volume:Slightly Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Gap Up

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Trend Change - Positive (from Neutral)
• Next Support at $560
• Next Resistance at $583
• Volume: Well Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Gap Up

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $225 - $230
• Next Resistance at $237
• Volume: Well Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Doji Candle

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – September 05, 2025 (After Market Close)

The final session of the week (Friday, Sep 5) maintained relatively solid breadth, though with less conviction than the prior session. Here's a breakdown of the key developments:

Day-over-Day Movements

Advancing vs Declining Stocks

• Advancers: 59.7% (down from 67.4% on Sep 4)

• Decliners: 37.6% (up from 30.1%)

A clear cool-down after Thursday’s strong showing, yet still firmly in positive territory.

Strong Movers (±4%)

• Advancing 4%+: 5.1% (highest in 10 days)

• Declining 4%+: 2%

The gap favors bulls, though not overwhelmingly.

Medium-Term Breadth Still Healthy

% Above Key Moving Averages:

• SMA(20): 68.9% (↑ from 65.7%)

• SMA(50): 69.5% (↑ from 67.6%)

• SMA(100): 73.6% (↑ from 72.4%)

• SMA(200): 62.5% (↑ from 61.3%)

These numbers continue to trend upward, confirming broad medium-term support across equities.

New Highs vs New Lows (NH/NL):

• NH: 10.1% (highest in the series)

• NL: 1.1%

A very strong internal signal, reflecting expanding leadership.

Longer-Term Breadth Still Solid

• 3-Month Advancers: 72.4%

• 3-Month Decliners: 26.5%

• Top Quartile 3-Month Gainers (25%+): 15.3%

These figures have stabilized at healthy levels for several sessions now, showing persistent long-term participation.

Short-Term Momentum Wanes

• Advancing Week: 50.1% (barely holding above parity)

• Declining Week: 48.7%

This is a sharp slowdown from Wednesday's 77.7% weekly advancers and shows that despite Friday’s uptick, the broader advance has lost steam.

• Percentage of Stocks showing a PP (Pivot Point): 35% (barely up from 32.2% on Sep 4)

This metric still suggests that short-term breakout potential is limited.

Comparison to Previous Analysis

In the previous update (Sep 4), we noted the strong rebound in breadth and short-term momentum, following a period of contraction. That momentum slowed notably on Sep 5, but there was no major deterioration. The pullback is more reflective of a cooling rally than a reversal.

Breadth Trend Rating: 3 – Neutral (with a positive tilt)

Despite a solid week overall, the deceleration on Friday and lack of strong follow-through prevent a more bullish rating.

The medium- to long-term indicators remain broadly positive, but short-term signals are not confirming a sustained breakout yet.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

Next to read: Market Monitor News, September 08 BMO