Market Monitor News June 25 BMO (UP - DOWN)

It was one of those trading days where everything seemed to fall into place, at least on the surface. The geopolitical heat in the Middle East simmered down, Jerome Powell dialed down his hawkish tone (or at least didn’t turn up the volume), and oil prices took a nosedive.

And just like that, Wall Street exhaled. I wouldn’t pop the champagne just yet, but the mood has definitely shifted.

A Breath of Fresh Air, Finally

After a string of high-stakes headlines, markets welcomed what felt like a rare dose of stability. The Dow Jones closed 1.2% higher, the Nasdaq gained 1.4%, and the S&P 500 edged 1.1% closer to its all-time high.

The catalyst? A tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, bolstered by some not-so-subtle nudges from Donald Trump, who opted for de-escalation instead of escalation. His criticism of both Israel and Iran for violating the ceasefire suggests he's serious this time. Maybe.

Oil prices responded accordingly. Brent fell below $67 per barrel, while WTI lost 6% to close at $64.31.

Energy stocks took a hit: Occidental Petroleum (OXY | –3.34%), Exxon Mobil (XOM | –3.04%), and Chevron (CVX | –2.25%) all dropped. But for the broader equity markets, cheaper oil was just the tailwind they needed.

Powell Whispers, Markets Listen

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress was a classic exercise in central banker ambiguity. Officially, he's in no rush to cut rates.

Unofficially? He left the door wide open. Traders heard what they wanted to hear: a dovish undercurrent beneath the hawkish façade. Powell acknowledged that recent data might have justified more cuts if not for concerns about tariff-induced inflation. That’s not a "yes," but it’s definitely not a "no."

The dollar, meanwhile, sank to its lowest level against the euro since October 2021 (1.1641).

Winners Take the Stage

One of the day’s biggest stars was Carnival (CCL | +6.91%). The cruise operator crushed earnings expectations with EPS of $0.35 (vs. $0.25 expected) on revenue of $6.33 billion. That’s nearly triple last year’s $0.11 per share.

More impressive? It was Carnival’s 11th straight quarter beating analyst forecasts. The company now expects 40% higher net profit this year, up from the earlier 30% forecast, thanks to a surge in demand for last-minute cruises. Apparently, people are still eager to sail away from their problems.

Chipmakers were also riding the wave. Intel (INTC | +6.42%), AMD (AMD | +6.83%), Marvell (MRVL | +6.26%), and Arm Holdings (ARM | +4.74%) all rallied on the back of improved sentiment. It was one of those "buy everything tech" kind of days.

And speaking of tech: Coinbase (COIN | +12.1%) jumped after Benchmark Capital cheered the U.S. Senate’s approval of the so-called Genius Act, a bill that brings regulatory clarity to stablecoins, a core revenue stream for the crypto exchange.

Mastercard (MA | +2.8%) also made headlines after announcing it will integrate FIUSD, Fiserv’s stablecoin, into a wide range of its services.

Not every stablecoin name fared well, though. Circle (CRCL | -15.49%), the firm behind USDC, fell 15% after Compass Point slapped a tepid ‘hold’ rating on the stock, citing intense competition in the now-regulated stablecoin space.

The Buzzkill: FedEx and a Slowing Economy

Then came the cold shower. FedEx (FDX | –5.96% aftermarket) issued a weak outlook, citing "volatile global demand." As a bellwether of global commerce, FedEx doesn't sugarcoat macro realities. It even pulled full-year guidance for revenue and earnings, too much uncertainty thanks to tariffs and shaky trade negotiations. Not the stuff bull markets are made of.

Other Notables

Tesla (TSLA | –2.35%) gave back some of Monday’s 8.2% pop. Investors weren’t fully convinced by the robotaxi rollout in Austin, some of the test drive videos looked more like bumper cars than breakthroughs.

Uber (UBER | +7.52%) did better, thanks to its autonomous taxi pilot with Waymo in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Super Micro Computer (SMCI | +4.77%) rebounded after a rough start to the week.

And let’s not forget the broader macro context. U.S. home prices are still rising, but at a slower pace. Confidence among consumers fell yet again in June, dropping to 93.0, down from 98.4 in May. People are uneasy about their jobs, their money, and yes, the markets.

Bottom Line

Markets caught a much-needed breather. But don’t let today’s green numbers lull you into complacency.

The ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, Powell’s tone may be softer, but he’s not cutting just yet, and key economic indicators still flash yellow. It’s a relief rally, but one built on shaky legs.

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Kristoff - Co-Founder ChartMill

Next to read: Market Monitor Trends & Breadth Analysis, June 25