CANADIAN NATL RAILWAY CO (CNI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:CNI - CA1363751027 - Common Stock
95.03 USD
+0.49 (+0.52%)
95.03 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to CNI. CNI was compared to 43 industry peers in the Ground Transportation industry. While CNI belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. CNI has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CNI had positive earnings in the past year.
CNI had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
CNI had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years CNI had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
CNI has a Return On Assets of 8.01%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CNI outperforms 83.72% of its industry peers.
CNI has a Return On Equity of 21.71%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CNI outperforms 86.05% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of CNI (9.72%) is better than 88.37% of its industry peers.
CNI had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.70%. This is above the industry average of 7.41%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.01% | ||
| ROE | 21.71% | ||
| ROIC | 9.72% |
ROA(3y)9.53%
ROA(5y)9.32%
ROE(3y)24.34%
ROE(5y)22.53%
ROIC(3y)10.7%
ROIC(5y)10.47%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of CNI (26.85%) is better than 90.70% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CNI has declined.
The Operating Margin of CNI (37.69%) is better than 97.67% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CNI has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 75.91%, CNI belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 88.37% of the companies in the same industry.
CNI's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 37.69% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 26.85% | ||
| GM | 75.91% |
OM growth 3Y-1.16%
OM growth 5Y-0.21%
PM growth 3Y-8.26%
PM growth 5Y-1.58%
GM growth 3Y-0.37%
GM growth 5Y0.14%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so CNI is still creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CNI has less shares outstanding
CNI has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for CNI is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.47 indicates that CNI is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
CNI's Altman-Z score of 2.47 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. CNI outperforms 58.14% of its industry peers.
CNI has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.13. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as CNI would need 6.13 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 6.13, CNI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.74% of the companies in the same industry.
CNI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.96. This is a neutral value indicating CNI is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.96, CNI is not doing good in the industry: 62.79% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.47 |
ROIC/WACC1.16
WACC8.35%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.60 indicates that CNI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.60, CNI is doing worse than 90.70% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.42 indicates that CNI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of CNI (0.42) is worse than 93.02% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 0.96% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, CNI shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.09% on average per year.
CNI shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 0.23%.
Measured over the past years, CNI shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)0.96%
EPS 3Y6.07%
EPS 5Y4.09%
EPS Q2Q%6.4%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.23%
Revenue growth 3Y5.6%
Revenue growth 5Y2.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.34%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 9.25% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
CNI is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.35% yearly.
EPS Next Y6.49%
EPS Next 2Y7.75%
EPS Next 3Y8.73%
EPS Next 5Y9.25%
Revenue Next Year1.06%
Revenue Next 2Y2.5%
Revenue Next 3Y3.31%
Revenue Next 5Y4.35%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 18.20, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of CNI.
83.72% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CNI, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.06. CNI is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 16.27, which indicates a correct valuation of CNI.
CNI's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CNI is cheaper than 79.07% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 32.73, CNI is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.2 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.27 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of CNI indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CNI is cheaper than 60.47% of the companies listed in the same industry.
83.72% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CNI, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 24.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.28 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates CNI does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The excellent profitability rating of CNI may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.81
PEG (5Y)4.45
EPS Next 2Y7.75%
EPS Next 3Y8.73%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.66%, CNI has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.71, CNI pays a better dividend. On top of this CNI pays more dividend than 97.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, CNI has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.66% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CNI is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.39%!
CNI has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CNI has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.39%
Div Incr Years27
Div Non Decr Years27
5.3 Sustainability
47.51% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CNI. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
CNI's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP47.51%
EPS Next 2Y7.75%
EPS Next 3Y8.73%
95.03
+0.49 (+0.52%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryGround Transportation
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners74.12%
Inst Owner Change-1.13%
Ins Owners0.17%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap59.32B
Revenue(TTM)17.20B
Net Income(TTM)4.62B
Analysts71.03
Price Target112.98 (18.89%)
Short Float %0.72%
Short Ratio2.72
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.66% |
Yearly Dividend2.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.39%
DP47.51%
Div Incr Years27
Div Non Decr Years27
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)0.65%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.91%
Max EPS beat(2)2.21%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.05%
Min EPS beat(4)-8.25%
Max EPS beat(4)2.73%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-1.47%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-1.16%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)0.36%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.85%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.16%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.61%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.53%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.5%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.37%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.43%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.44%
PT rev (1m)-1.93%
PT rev (3m)-4.48%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.91%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-3.32%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.14%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.21%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.97%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.54%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.3%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.54%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.2 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.27 | ||
| P/S | 4.87 | ||
| P/FCF | 24.3 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.28 | ||
| P/B | 3.93 | ||
| P/tB | 3.93 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.28 |
EPS(TTM)5.22
EY5.49%
EPS(NY)5.84
Fwd EY6.15%
FCF(TTM)3.91
FCFY4.12%
OCF(TTM)7.74
OCFY8.15%
SpS19.53
BVpS24.16
TBVpS24.16
PEG (NY)2.81
PEG (5Y)4.45
Graham Number53.26
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.01% | ||
| ROE | 21.71% | ||
| ROCE | 12.12% | ||
| ROIC | 9.72% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.76% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.76% | ||
| OM | 37.69% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 26.85% | ||
| GM | 75.91% | ||
| FCFM | 20.03% |
ROA(3y)9.53%
ROA(5y)9.32%
ROE(3y)24.34%
ROE(5y)22.53%
ROIC(3y)10.7%
ROIC(5y)10.47%
ROICexc(3y)10.79%
ROICexc(5y)10.58%
ROICexgc(3y)10.83%
ROICexgc(5y)10.63%
ROCE(3y)13.46%
ROCE(5y)13.06%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-1.67%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-2.97%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.63%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.93%
OM growth 3Y-1.16%
OM growth 5Y-0.21%
PM growth 3Y-8.26%
PM growth 5Y-1.58%
GM growth 3Y-0.37%
GM growth 5Y0.14%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.3
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.13 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 171.13% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 19.61% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.66 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 80.65% | ||
| Profit Quality | 74.58% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.47 |
F-Score6
WACC8.35%
ROIC/WACC1.16
Cap/Depr(3y)174.01%
Cap/Depr(5y)176.62%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.61%
Cap/Sales(5y)19.3%
Profit Quality(3y)71.51%
Profit Quality(5y)78.12%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)0.96%
EPS 3Y6.07%
EPS 5Y4.09%
EPS Q2Q%6.4%
EPS Next Y6.49%
EPS Next 2Y7.75%
EPS Next 3Y8.73%
EPS Next 5Y9.25%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.23%
Revenue growth 3Y5.6%
Revenue growth 5Y2.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.34%
Revenue Next Year1.06%
Revenue Next 2Y2.5%
Revenue Next 3Y3.31%
Revenue Next 5Y4.35%
EBIT growth 1Y-0.51%
EBIT growth 3Y4.37%
EBIT growth 5Y2.49%
EBIT Next Year35.03%
EBIT Next 3Y14.88%
EBIT Next 5Y11.01%
FCF growth 1Y-5.67%
FCF growth 3Y-8.26%
FCF growth 5Y8.89%
OCF growth 1Y-0.1%
OCF growth 3Y-1.32%
OCF growth 5Y2.49%
CANADIAN NATL RAILWAY CO / CNI FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for CNI stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to CNI.
What is the valuation status of CANADIAN NATL RAILWAY CO (CNI) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to CANADIAN NATL RAILWAY CO (CNI). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of CNI stock?
CANADIAN NATL RAILWAY CO (CNI) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for CANADIAN NATL RAILWAY CO (CNI) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of CANADIAN NATL RAILWAY CO (CNI) is expected to grow by 6.49% in the next year.
How sustainable is the dividend of CANADIAN NATL RAILWAY CO (CNI) stock?
The dividend rating of CANADIAN NATL RAILWAY CO (CNI) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 47.51%.