Friday’s tape looked like a classic “digest” day: SPY and QQQ slipped slightly while IWM held up and remains the clear leader. Under the surface, daily breadth weakened versus Thursday (more decliners than advancers), but the intermediate backdrop is still constructive with ~70% of stocks above their 20- and 50-day averages and new lows staying muted.
Index overview (SPY, QQQ, IWM)
Short Term (Daily)
Long Term (Weekly)
SPY
SPY finished fractionally lower on the day (around -0.08%) and slightly lower on the week (about -0.35%), but the bigger picture remains an uptrend. On the daily chart, price is still holding above the EMA21 and hovering around the EMA9, typical “tight but choppy” action near the upper end of its recent range.
On the weekly chart, the long-term trend remains positive, and the structure still looks like a strong advance that’s consolidating near the highs rather than breaking down.
QQQ
QQQ was also marginally lower on the day (about -0.08%) and clearly the laggard on the week (roughly -0.86%). On the daily chart, it’s essentially chopping around the EMA9/EMA21 area, still supported, but not pushing through the overhead supply zone.
The weekly chart shows a mature uptrend that’s stalling just beneath resistance. This is the same “megacap digestion” feel we’ve been seeing: not an outright breakdown, but a lack of upside follow-through.
IWM
IWM continues to stand out. It ended slightly green on the day (~+0.09%) and strongly green on the week (~+2.1%). On the daily chart, IWM is comfortably above both EMA9 and EMA21, and the pullbacks remain shallow.
On the weekly chart, the long-term trend is firmly positive and price is pressing higher. In short: leadership is still coming from small-caps, and that’s an important support for the broader risk tone.
Breadth dashboard: what the internals said on Friday
The key message from the breadth table is a clear daily cool-down, without meaningful damage to the bigger trend.
Daily participation weakened (vs Thursday)
- Advancers vs decliners: 41.8% advancing vs 54.6% declining.
That’s a reversal from Thursday’s stronger participation (58.1% advancers). So Friday was more of a “net red” day beneath the surface.
But upside thrust didn’t disappear
- 4% movers: 3.8% advanced +4% vs 3.2% declined -4%.
Even with more decliners overall, the market still produced slightly more strong upside moves than strong downside moves. That’s a subtle but important “risk appetite is cooling, not collapsing” signal.
Trend breadth is still solid, though off the highs
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Above SMA(20): 69.6% (down from 73.1%)
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Above SMA(50): 68.3% (down from 70.6%)
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Above SMA(100): 58.9% (roughly stable)
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Above SMA(200): 63.2% (roughly stable)
I read this as normal consolidation: short-term trend breadth eased, while medium/longer-term breadth stayed resilient.
New highs cooled, but new lows stayed contained
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New highs: 6.4% (down meaningfully from 12.6% Thursday)
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New lows: 1.2% (still very low)
This is a “pressure release” pattern: fewer breakouts, but still not many stocks getting pushed to fresh breakdown territory.
Multi-day measures: still constructive, slightly less punchy
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Week: 58.7% advancing vs 39.9% declining (weaker than Thursday’s 68.1/30.9)
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Month: 70.0% advancing vs 29.3% declining (basically steady, still strong)
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3 months: 58.5% advancing vs 40.4% declining (still positive, steady)
So the short-term momentum cooled, but the intermediate trend remains positive.
Linking it to Thursday: continuation, but with less breadth “fuel”
Coming into Friday, the setup already suggested “uptrend intact, but breadth not accelerating.” Friday delivered exactly that:
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The indexes didn’t break (SPY/QQQ small red, IWM holding firm).
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The internals softened (adv/decl flipped negative; new highs dropped).
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Yet the trend backbone stayed healthy (high % above 20/50-day; new lows remain scarce).
This is usually what I want to see during a bull phase: consolidation that happens through rotation and time, not through widespread breakdowns.
Levels and conditions I’m watching next
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QQQ needs to stop “stalling at the ceiling” and show cleaner acceptance above resistance for broad risk-on to re-accelerate. If it keeps chopping and slipping while IWM leads, we’re likely in a rotation regime rather than a clean index-level breakout.
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SPY is still behaving like a steady trend, but it’s also near the upper zone of its range. I want to see whether pullbacks remain supported quickly (a sign institutions are still buying dips).
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IWM is the market’s tell right now. As long as it holds above its short-term trend (EMA21) and doesn’t give back the recent breakout, it continues to act as a stabilizer for breadth.
Breadth trend rating (1–7)
Rating: 5 — neutral to positive bias.
Daily breadth slipped and new highs cooled sharply, but the broader participation backdrop is still strong (roughly two-thirds of stocks above key moving averages) and downside expansion remains limited (new lows near 1%). The path of least resistance still looks higher, just with more chop and rotation than easy trend days.
Kristoff
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