Market Breadth Improves Sharply After Midweek Setback

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – September 18, 2025 (After Market Close)

New record highs for all US index ETFs, with IWM closing particularly strongly.

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $650 - $640
• Next Resistance at ?
• Volume: Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Gap Up - New All Time High

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $580
• Next Resistance at ?
• Volume: Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Gap Up - New All Time High

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $235
• Next Resistance at $245
• Volume: Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Gap Up - New All Time High - Strong Candle Close

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – September 18, 2025 (After Market Close)

Thursday’s session brought a notable recovery in market participation, reversing much of the weakness seen on Wednesday. The underlying breadth trend remains constructive, though still somewhat fragile.

After Wednesday’s mixed session, where declining stocks slightly outnumbered advancers (45.3% vs. 51.6%), breadth improved significantly on Thursday, September 18.

Advancing issues climbed to 67.8%, while decliners fell back to 29.4%, a strong shift that restored positive momentum. The percentage of stocks making gains above 4% (7.6%) clearly outpaced the number losing more than 4% (1.6%), signaling healthier upside participation.

The moving average metrics also confirm strength:

• 70–73% of stocks remain above their 20-, 50-, and 100-day averages, essentially stable to slightly stronger compared to the day before.

• The longer-term 200-day reading improved marginally to 65.2%.

New highs (9.8%) held near prior levels, while new lows (1.2%) stayed minimal. Positive Price Percent (40.8%) was stable, though still not matching the highs seen earlier this month.

Looking at the weekly context, Thursday’s rebound lifted advancing issues to 55.1%, offsetting much of Wednesday’s weaker breadth. On a monthly and quarterly view, the market continues to show consistency: roughly 70–75% of stocks have advanced, while only about 24–29% declined.

Importantly, the percentage of stocks gaining more than 25% over the past three months (20.4%) remains solid, while only 5% declined that much.

Comparison with Wednesday:

The breadth swing was significant: Wednesday’s balance tilted slightly negative, but Thursday reversed strongly higher.

The stable readings in moving averages suggest underlying support was never seriously broken, and the rebound reflects renewed broad participation.

Conclusion:

Thursday’s recovery confirms that the weakness seen on Wednesday was more of a pause than a breakdown. With a majority of stocks holding above key averages and longer-term metrics staying strong, the breadth picture tilts constructive.

However, the day-to-day volatility still calls for some caution.

Current Breadth Trend Rating: positive

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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