Market Breadth Falters After Brief Recovery

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – September 16, 2025 (After Market Close)

Eagerly awaiting the Fed's decision today...

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $650 - $640
• Next Resistance at ?
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - New Intraday High

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $560
• Next Resistance at ?
• Volume: Slightly Below Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - New Intraday High

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $235
• Next Resistance at $245
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Doji Candle

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – September 16, 2025 (After Market Close)

Weak advance–decline balance and fading momentum point to renewed fragility in market internals.

On Tuesday, September 16, 2025, market breadth deteriorated again after Monday’s modest rebound. Only 44.3% of stocks advanced, while 52.3% declined, reversing the short-lived improvement seen the previous day (56.4% advancers vs. 41.1% decliners).

The chart clearly highlights the volatility in breadth: a strong spike in advancers on Sept 11, a washout on Sept 12, followed by a short-lived rebound on Sept 15 that reversed again on Sept 16.

Large-move participation also leaned soft, with just 3.9% of stocks gaining more than 4% against 1.8% losing more than 4%.

Short-term breadth slipped: the percentage of stocks above their 20-day SMA fell to 64.2% (from 66.4%), and while medium- to longer-term measures such as the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs held relatively steady, they remain clustered just below the recent highs.

New highs contracted to 8.8% of issues (down from 11.8%), while new lows stayed contained at 1.2%.

Looking at momentum breadth, the percentage of stocks above their pivot point declined to 40.6%, while weekly breadth softened slightly (62.1% advancers vs. 37.1% decliners). On the monthly horizon, the picture is steadier: around 70–73% of stocks remain higher on a one- and three-month basis, but these readings have flattened, signaling waning follow-through.

This shift is notable when compared with last Thursday’s strong surge (Sept 11), when nearly 80% of stocks advanced and short-term breadth metrics improved sharply.

Since then, breadth has trended unevenly: Friday saw a washout, Monday a rebound, and now Tuesday another setback. The inconsistency highlights a market struggling to establish a sustainable positive trend.

Breadth Trend Rating: 3 – Neutral with a Negative Bias

Despite resilient longer-term averages, the daily and short-term measures show a loss of momentum and confirm that last week’s burst of strength has not been able to carry forward. For now, market breadth leans fragile, with downside risk outweighing upside follow-through.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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