Oil crashed 30% in a single session. Stagflation fears evaporated in real time. And a handful of company-specific stories made Monday one of the more memorable trading days of the year, for reasons both dramatic and surprisingly bullish.
A Session That Had Everything
If you blinked, you missed the entire story arc. Monday on Wall Street opened with a sickening drop, oil had surged to nearly $120 per barrel overnight, stagflation fears were running hot, and the VIX had punched above 30 for the first time since last April's tariff-induced chaos. The kind of opening that makes you want to close your brokerage app and go for a long walk.
But then, in the final hour of trading, everything flipped.
In regular trading on Monday, the Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 gained 0.83%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.38%. That turnaround was almost entirely driven by one man and one phone call.
The Catalyst: Trump Signals the Iran War Is Winding Down
Speaking to CBS News, Trump said the war was "very complete, pretty much," adding that opposing forces had effectively lost their naval and air capabilities. He also said that he believes the war is "very far" ahead of the four-to-five week military timeline that was initially suggested.
Those words moved markets faster than any Fed statement could. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to roughly $88 a barrel after briefly surging above $119 overnight Sunday. A 30% peak-to-trough collapse in oil prices - in a single session - is not something most of us have ever seen before. It's the kind of move that reshuffles portfolios in real time.
As Northwestern Mutual chief portfolio manager Matt Stucky put it: "This is just a real clear indication that oil's in the driver's seat in the near term. Just from peak to trough, in one day, we saw oil prices correct down 30%, and risk assets, and specifically the stock market, rally throughout the news."
The relief rally was broad. Airlines, cruise operators, and energy-intensive consumer businesses - all of which had been hammered by $120 oil - immediately reversed course. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH | +3.29%) and Carnival (CCL | +2.33%) are two good examples of that rotation in action.
The Macro Backdrop: Stagflation Is Still the Word on Everyone's Lips
Let's not get too comfortable. On Tuesday morning, energy ministers from the Group of Seven nations are set to meet virtually to discuss a potential release of strategic oil reserves. That emergency meeting alone tells you that policymakers are still deeply worried about what sustained high oil prices could do to global growth.
The Federal Reserve's position here is genuinely uncomfortable. If oil prices don't continue their retreat, inflation could re-accelerate at precisely the moment growth is weakening, the classic stagflation trap. February's consumer price index reading is due Wednesday, and January's personal consumption expenditures price index will be out Friday.
Neither report will yet capture the oil spike's full impact, but markets will scrutinize them closely for any early warning signals.
For now, the bond market is offering some comfort. The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield eased by 3 basis points to close at 4.11%, while the euro/dollar slipped slightly to 1.1614, modest moves that suggest investors aren't in full-blown panic mode.
The Week Ahead
Looking ahead, investors await the February CPI report on Wednesday and January's PCE price index on Friday for further clues on inflation trends. On the corporate front, earnings are due from Oracle (ORCL | -0.92%) on Tuesday and Adobe (ADBE | -0.42%) on Thursday.
Hims & Hers + Novo Nordisk: A Deal Nobody Saw Coming
The single biggest company-specific story of the day has to be the stunning partnership announced between Hims & Hers Health (HIMS | +40.79%) and Novo Nordisk (NVO | +3.25%).
Novo Nordisk announced that customers will "soon have access" to Ozempic and Wegovy injectables, as well as its Wegovy pill - all different versions of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide weight-loss drug - through the Hims platform. As part of the deal, Novo dropped its patent infringement lawsuit, and Hims agreed to stop marketing compounded GLP-1 offerings.
HIMS shares were down more than 51% year-to-date heading into the session, with the stock's 52-week range spanning from a low of $13.74 to a high of $70.43.
The reversal couldn't be more dramatic, trading volume reached 168.1 million shares, about 557% above its three-month average of 25.6 million shares.
What makes this particularly interesting from an investor's perspective is the valuation math. Even after the jump in stock price, Hims is still trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of under 20 times based on the analyst consensus for 2026 and below 15 times based on 2027 estimates. Revenue was climbing 28% last quarter, and the company has a strong international expansion opportunity ahead.
For Novo Nordisk, the motivation is competitive pressure: Eli Lilly (LLY | +1.82%) has been winning market share in the obesity space, and Novo clearly decided that distribution reach matters more right now than legal victories over a telehealth company.
I think this deal makes more strategic sense for Novo than it might appear at first glance, the Hims platform reaches a massive, digitally native consumer base that traditional pharma channels simply don't.
That said, caution is warranted. Given the volatile nature of the past relationship between these two companies, investors shouldn't go overboard with the stock and should consider only smaller positions. This deal has already fallen apart once before.
Tech & Semis: Investors Rotate Back Into Growth
With oil fear subsiding, investors rotated back into what they know best: technology and semiconductors.
Nvidia (NVDA | +2.72%) recovered as supply chain concerns were set aside.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD | +5.33%) and Broadcom (AVGO | +4.62%) posted even stronger gains, a sign that the market still trusts the AI-driven demand story when geopolitical noise quiets even slightly.
Data storage names also had a strong session, with Sandisk (SNDK | +11.64%) and Western Digital (WDC | +6.85%) surging, likely benefiting from both the broader tech rotation and underlying demand dynamics in the storage sector.
Also worth noting: Strategy (MSTR | +4.06%) climbed after disclosing it purchased nearly $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin last week, while Bitcoin itself gained 2.6% to approximately $69,000. Cryptocurrency continues to trade as a risk-on barometer rather than a safe haven.
Finally, four stocks - Vertiv (VRT | +9.33%), Lumentum (LITE | +14.73%), Coherent (COHR | +7.04%), and EchoStar(SATS | +3.46%) surged on confirmation they will join the S&P 500 on March 23 as part of the quarterly index rebalancing, replacing Match Group (MTCH), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Lamb Weston (LW), and Paycom Software (PAYC).
Conclusion
Monday's session was a microcosm of exactly how difficult this market is to navigate right now. In the span of a single trading day, investors went from pricing in a stagflationary oil shock to celebrating a near-resolution of the Iran conflict and that whipsaw is likely to continue as long as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated.
The upcoming CPI and PCE data this week will be crucial: if inflation prints hotter than expected, the Fed will face a genuine dilemma, and the relief rally we saw Monday could prove short-lived. For now, the path of least resistance appears higher, but only if oil stays well below $100. Stay nimble.
ChartMill Market Desk
This daily update is prepared by ChartMill for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
