Market Monitor News June 19 (Coinbase, Marvell UP - Visa, Mastercard DOWN)

I’ve learned to spot when something’s off, even when the headlines look calm. And right now? There’s a strange blend of confidence and discomfort brewing beneath the surface.

The Fed is on pause (again), chipmakers are chasing AI hype, and investors are caught between hopeful forecasts and stubborn uncertainties.

Fed on Hold, But the Real Message Is Between the Lines

For the fourth straight meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates untouched at 4.25–4.50%. Nothing unexpected on the surface. But scratch a little deeper and it’s clear the tone has shifted. Inflation projections are up, economic growth forecasts are down, and the much-discussed “dot plot” shows fewer rate cuts further out. In 2026 and 2027, we’re looking at just one cut per year, half of what was previously anticipated.

Why the change? Higher inflation expectations, mainly due to the Trump administration’s steep new import tariffs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t sugarcoat it: "We expect a significant upward impact on inflation from the tariff increases."

And while he admits the extent and distribution of the cost impact is still unclear, companies have already indicated they’ll be passing some of it on to consumers. No surprise there.

Interestingly, Powell also noted that the initial panic over April’s tariff announcements has eased. Businesses have shifted from fear mode to “we’ll get through this.” That resilience, along with a surprisingly sturdy labor market, gives the Fed cover to wait it out. In Powell’s own words: “There’s no immediate need to cut rates.”

'There’s no immediate need to cut rates' - Jerome Powell

Wall Street: Shrugs, Shifts, and Selective Optimism

Markets didn’t exactly party on the Fed news. The S&P 500 barely moved (-0.03%), the Dow slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. Investors initially showed mild enthusiasm post-announcement, but that evaporated during Powell’s presser.

The message? The Fed’s still not ready to play savior.

Even within the Fed, opinions are splitting. Ten policymakers still see two cuts this year, while seven see none. Only two see room for just one. On Wall Street, it’s even messier. Jamie Cox from Harris Financial summed it up nicely: “The Fed is still too focused on inflation and ignoring weak demand.” He’s betting on more cuts, sooner.

Geopolitical tensions are simmering too. The conflict between Israel and Iran has traders keeping one eye on the oil chart. After a 10% spike in crude prices following Israel’s airstrikes, things have cooled slightly, but the nerves remain.

Spotlight on Marvell: AI Ambitions Turn Heads

While macro uncertainty hogged the spotlight, Marvell (MRVL | +7.09%) quietly stole the show with its AI-focused strategy update. At its investor event, the chipmaker lifted its target for the datacenter market from $75B to $94B by 2028, a bold move that caught analysts’ attention.

JPMorgan didn’t mince words: “If management can execute, there’s significant upside in the stock.” They’ve slapped a $130 price target on it.

In a sector where everyone’s chasing the AI gold rush, Marvell’s positioning feels less like hype and more like calculated ambition.

Movers and Shakers: Winners, Losers, and Wild Swings

In individual stock news, the action was anything but dull:

Circle Internet Group (CRCL | +33.82%) exploded higher as the US Senate passed the Genius Act to regulate stablecoins. From $31 at IPO to $199 now? Crypto’s still got its casino moments.

Sunrun (RUN | +6.06%) rebounded sharply after a 40% collapse the day before, triggered by looming cuts to clean energy tax credits.

Cryptocurrency stock Coinbase (COIN | +16.32%) moved higher after announcing a new stablecoin payments solution.on Wednesday following the Senate’s approval of a long-awaited stablecoin bill on Tuesday.

Visa (V | -4.88%) and Mastercard (MA | -5.39%) took a hit after the Senate on Tuesday passed a highly-anticipated stablecoin bill.

Final Take

Markets are holding their breath. The Fed’s in wait-and-see mode, and so are we. AI stocks like Marvell are shining, but the broader landscape still feels fragile. Tariffs, inflation, geopolitical shocks, none of it is going away soon.

As always, be carefull. This is no time for autopilot.

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Kristoff - Co-Founder ChartMill

Next to read: Market Monitor Trends & Breadth Analysis, June 19