Ibotta Inc (NYSE:IBTA) Q2 2025 Earnings Report: Revenue Miss and Weak Guidance Trigger Sharp Stock Decline

Ibotta Inc (NYSE:IBTA) Q2 2025 Earnings: Revenue Miss and Weak Guidance Drive Sharp Selloff

Ibotta Inc (NYSE:IBTA) reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, missing revenue expectations and issuing underwhelming guidance, triggering a steep decline in its stock price. The digital promotions platform posted $86.0 million in revenue, a 2% year-over-year decline and below analyst estimates of $92.3 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.49 also fell short of the $0.20 consensus estimate, contributing to a negative market reaction.

Key Financial Takeaways

• Revenue Decline: Total revenue dropped 2% YoY to $86.0 million, missing expectations by approximately 6.8%.
• Profitability Mixed: GAAP net income improved to $2.5 million ($0.08 per share) from a loss in the prior year, but adjusted net income of $14.9 million ($0.49 per share) declined 25% YoY.
• User Growth vs. Monetization Challenges: The Ibotta Performance Network (IPN) saw a 27% increase in redeemers (17.3 million), but redemptions per user fell, indicating weaker engagement or lower promotional activity.
• Cash Flow & Buybacks: Generated $25.9 million in operating cash flow and repurchased $67.5 million worth of shares at an average price of $46.59.

Market Reaction: Stock Plummets on Weak Outlook

Following the earnings release, Ibotta’s stock dropped sharply in after-hours trading, reflecting investor disappointment. The company’s Q3 revenue guidance of $79–$85 million (midpoint: $82 million) is 19% below analyst expectations of $101.7 million, signaling continued pressure. Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $9.5–$13.5 million (14% margin at midpoint) also suggests profitability challenges ahead.

Press Release Highlights

• Expansion Efforts: Ibotta expanded its network with DoorDash integration and added key leadership hires in sales and marketing.
• Focus on Performance Marketing: CEO Bryan Leach emphasized transitioning toward a performance-based ad model, aiming to capture more CPG marketing spend.
• Declining Margins: Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 21% from 29% a year ago, reflecting higher costs or lower revenue efficiency.

Analyst Estimates vs. Reality

| Metric | Reported Q2 2025 | Analyst Estimate | Variance |
|----------------------|------------------|------------------|----------|
| Revenue | $86.0M | $92.3M | -6.8% |
| EPS (GAAP) | $0.08 | $0.20 | -60% |
| Q3 Revenue Guidance | $79–$85M | $101.7M | -19% |

Conclusion: Execution Risks Weigh on Sentiment

While Ibotta is growing its user base, monetization struggles and a weaker-than-expected outlook have raised concerns. The sharp stock decline suggests investors are reassessing growth prospects amid slowing revenue and margin pressures.

For more detailed earnings estimates and historical performance, visit Ibotta’s earnings page.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.