Warrior Met Coal Inc (NYSE:HCC) Reports Mixed Q2 2025 Results with EPS Beat but Revenue Slight Miss

Last update: Aug 6, 2025

Warrior Met Coal Inc (NYSE:HCC) reported mixed second-quarter 2025 results, with earnings surpassing analyst expectations while revenue fell slightly short. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.11, significantly outperforming the consensus estimate of a $0.39 loss. However, revenue came in at $297.5 million, narrowly missing the $294.7 million forecast.

Key Financial Takeaways

EPS Beat: Reported $0.11 per diluted share vs. an estimated loss of $0.39.
Revenue Slight Miss: $297.5 million actual vs. $294.7 million expected.
Net Income Decline: $5.6 million in Q2 2025, down sharply from $70.7 million in Q2 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA: $53.6 million, down from $115.9 million year-over-year.

The earnings beat appears to have been driven by cost discipline and operational efficiency, particularly at the newly operational Blue Creek mine. Cash cost of sales per short ton dropped 18% quarter-over-quarter to $101.17, reflecting a favorable sales mix and lower variable costs.

Market Reaction

Despite the earnings outperformance, the stock has shown muted movement in after-hours trading, suggesting investors may be weighing the positive cost control measures against broader market concerns. Over the past month, shares have gained nearly 12%, but the two-week performance remains negative (-7.3%), likely reflecting uncertainty around steelmaking coal prices, which declined 24% year-over-year.

Operational Highlights

Blue Creek Progress: Achieved first commercial sales (239k short tons) ahead of schedule and accelerated longwall startup to early Q1 2026.
Production Growth: Total sales and production volumes rose 6% year-over-year, supported by Blue Creek contributions.
Cost Discipline: Reduced cash cost of sales per ton by 18%, aided by operational efficiencies and lower transportation and royalty expenses.

Outlook vs. Analyst Estimates

Warrior updated its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting:

Coal Sales: 8.8–9.5 million short tons (analysts estimate ~9.1 million).
Cash Cost of Sales: $110–$120 per short ton.
Capital Expenditures: $225–$250 million for Blue Creek development.

Analysts had expected full-year revenue of $1.3 billion, but Warrior did not provide a specific revenue forecast, instead focusing on operational metrics. The company’s ability to maintain cost discipline amid weak pricing will be critical in meeting or exceeding these expectations.

Conclusion

Warrior’s Q2 results reflect resilience in a challenging steelmaking coal market, with cost controls and Blue Creek’s early contributions helping offset pricing pressures. While revenue slightly missed estimates, the earnings beat and improved cost structure may provide a foundation for future performance.

For more detailed earnings estimates and historical data, visit Warrior Met Coal’s earnings page.

Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.