CFLT Q1 Earnings Call: Confluent Raises Profit Outlook, Lowers Revenue Guidance Amid Cloud Optimization Trends

Data infrastructure software company, Confluent (NASDAQ:CFLT) reported revenue ahead of Wall Street’s expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales up 24.8% year on year to $271.1 million. On the other hand, next quarter’s revenue guidance of $267.5 million was less impressive, coming in 3.8% below analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.08 per share was 16.5% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Confluent’s first quarter results were shaped by continued demand for its data streaming platform, with management pointing to strong customer adoption across both cloud and on-premise solutions. CEO Jay Kreps emphasized the critical role Confluent plays in mission-critical applications, citing real-time workloads in sectors like financial services and retail. Kreps highlighted that the addition of 340 net new customers, the highest in three years, was driven by both product-led initiatives and the ongoing shift from open-source Kafka to Confluent’s managed offerings. The company also noted that new products such as Flink and Tableflow are gaining traction, particularly among enterprise customers looking to support generative AI initiatives.

Looking ahead, Confluent’s leadership adopted a cautious approach to guidance, lowering full-year revenue projections while raising profit expectations. CFO Rohan Sivaram attributed this to slower consumption growth among larger cloud customers, who are prioritizing cost optimization over expanding new use cases. Sivaram stated, “We are not assuming an immediate near-term rebound in consumption patterns,” reflecting a more prudent outlook amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Management expects expansion in hybrid and on-premise deployments to help offset cloud headwinds, while ongoing investments in product innovation and go-to-market execution remain central to Confluent’s long-term growth strategy.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed the quarter’s outperformance to a mix of product differentiation, customer expansion, and the ability to meet diverse deployment needs. The following points capture significant drivers discussed during the call:

• Mission-critical use cases: Confluent’s platform is increasingly powering core business processes, such as fraud detection in banking and real-time inventory in retail. Gross retention rates above 90% reflect the dependence customers have on these workloads.

• Open-source conversion momentum: The company highlighted continued success in converting organizations from open-source Kafka to its managed platform, referencing recent wins with Booking.com and Audacy. This conversion is seen as a long-term engine for growth.

• Hybrid and multi-cloud flexibility: With customers looking for both on-premise and cloud-based solutions, Confluent’s ability to support hybrid deployments has become a competitive advantage. The Confluent Platform business posted its strongest first-quarter growth in three years, buoyed by international OEM partnerships.

• Product expansion and AI integration: New offerings such as Flink (for real-time data processing) and Tableflow (for data pipeline management) are seeing early adoption. Management cited growing demand from enterprises integrating generative AI, with Confluent acting as the connective tissue for real-time data flows.

• Leadership update: Ryan Mac Ban was promoted to Chief Revenue Officer, consolidating global sales and customer-facing functions. His experience at UiPath and other enterprise software firms is expected to drive further go-to-market execution.

Drivers of Future Performance

Management expects a more measured growth trajectory in the coming quarters, shaped by macroeconomic factors and evolving customer behavior.

• Cloud consumption headwinds: Larger enterprise customers are slowing the addition of new use cases and focusing on optimizing existing cloud workloads, which is expected to temper revenue growth in the near term.

• Expansion of on-premise and hybrid deployments: The company anticipates that growth in on-premise and hybrid solutions, supported by OEM and international partners, will help balance softer cloud trends and provide resilience.

• Product innovation and AI demand: Management views new product launches—especially those supporting generative AI and real-time analytics—as potential long-term catalysts, though their near-term revenue contributions are expected to be modest as adoption ramps.

Top Analyst Questions

• Pinjalim Bora (JPMorgan): Asked about the impact of cost optimization among large cloud customers on existing versus new use cases; management said optimization cycles are ongoing, with smaller customers showing steadier consumption.
• Matthew Hedberg (RBC): Inquired about the sequential progress of DSP (Data Streaming Platform) products like Flink and Tableflow; CEO Jay Kreps said these products are outpacing core cloud growth but are still in early adoption phases.
• Michael Turrin (Wells Fargo): Questioned the timeline for new product ramp and go-to-market productivity; Kreps noted that Tableflow is priced separately, with broader adoption expected as it is launched across more cloud providers.
• Sanjit Singh (Morgan Stanley): Sought comparison between current optimization trends and prior cycles; Kreps observed that the current base is tighter, with less unoptimized usage than in previous years, limiting downside risk.
• Brad Zelnick (Deutsche Bank): Asked about the durability of free cash flow goals after compensation-related changes; CFO Rohan Sivaram affirmed that no further adjustments are anticipated beyond the one-time impact already disclosed.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the quarters ahead, the StockStory team will be tracking (1) the rate of new customer additions and whether top-of-funnel momentum sustains, (2) adoption and revenue impact from recently launched products like Flink and Tableflow, and (3) the degree to which on-premise and hybrid solutions can offset moderation in cloud consumption among larger customers. The ability of management to achieve expanded profitability targets while balancing investment in product and go-to-market will also serve as a critical benchmark.

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