Market Monitor News August 14 BMO - Wall Street’s Double Shot: Rate‑Cut Fever and a Crypto IPO Inferno

Days like this make markets feel invincible, until they aren’t.

We got another record close for the S&P 500, Treasury yields slid, and a crypto exchange’s IPO turned into a full‑blown spectacle. That mix of easy‑money hope and FOMO is exactly what pushes investors to chase—and exactly when I like to check my risk.

Records with a Side of Rates

The S&P 500 inched up ~0.3%, the Nasdaq added ~0.1%, and the Dow climbed ~1.0% on Wednesday, August 13, setting new closing highs as traders priced a near‑certain September rate cut.

The 10‑year Treasury yield slid 6 bps to ~4.24%, extending the post‑CPI rally. Futures‑implied odds for at least a quarter‑point cut are now in the mid‑ to high‑90s, depending on source and timestamp.

Bessent Turns Up the Volume; Trump Turns Up the Drama

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made his most explicit case yet for aggressive easing: start with 50 bps in September and lower policy rates by 150–175 bps in total. It’s unusual jawboning, and it landed squarely in a market primed to hear it.

Meanwhile, President Trump escalated his long‑running spat with Fed Chair Jerome Powell by floating a lawsuit tied to cost overruns on the Fed’s HQ renovation, a political sideshow, but one that keeps monetary policy front‑page.

Housing Perks Up, Oil Softens, Euro Firms

Mortgage demand jumped 10.9% w/w as rates eased; refis surged 23%, and purchase apps ticked higher. That’s the clearest recent sign that lower yields are filtering into Main Street.

On commodities, WTI settled at $62.65 (-0.8%), with the IEA projecting a bigger‑than‑expected supply build: +2.5 mb/d in 2025 and +1.9 mb/d in 2026. The oil tape reflects that oversupply story.

The euro hovered near $1.1700; ING’s Francesco Pesole sees dollar softness persisting unless U.S. jobs re‑accelerate, a fair take given the revisions saga.

Single‑Stock Standouts — Boom, Bust, and “Meme‑ish” Momentum

Bullish detonates on Day 1

Bullish (BLSH | +83.8%) exploded out of the gate: priced at $37, opened near $90, and closed around $68 after an upsized $1.1B raise.

CEO Tom Farley framed it as the start of the “institutional wave” into crypto and the tape backed him up. A day‑one pop this size is frothy, but it also signals real appetite for regulated‑crypto exposure.

CoreWeave trips over the bottom line

CoreWeave (CRWV | -20.83%) beat on revenue but widened losses, and the stock paid the price. When AI capex stories disappoint on profitability, the market now responds swiftly, especially after a multi‑quarter run.

Cava’s guidance indigestion

Cava Group (CAVA | -16.63%) cut its same‑store‑sales outlook to 4%–6% from 6%–8% as Q2 comps slowed to 2.1%.

Great brand, great unit growth, just not a great day to lower the bar in a market that still prices perfection.

Webtoon goes full franchise

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN | +81.2%) ripped after striking a deal with Walt Disney (DIS | +2.57%) to bring Marvel and Star Wars titles to its vertical‑scroll format—plus a surprise profit.

IP + mobile distribution is catnip for growth investors; today proved it.

Paramount Skydance joins the meme parade

Paramount Skydance (PSKY | +36.74%) surged as the newly merged studio basked in its seven‑year, $7.7B UFC rights pact with TKO Group (TKO | +2.83%).

The deal is strategically bold, Paramount+ becomes the exclusive U.S. home for UFC from 2026, but today’s outsized price action also had a whiff of “meme.” I’d separate the media thesis from the squeeze dynamics.

Software & industrials: winners and losers

Intapp (INTA | +15.52%) rallied on a clean beat and a $150M buyback authorization, old‑school capital return still moves stocks.

Stratasys (SSYS | -11.96%) fell after trimming full‑year revenue guidance; even small cuts to top‑line growth get punished when patience for capex cycles is thin.

How I’m Reading the Tape

This market is trading like the first rate cut is a green light for everything, everywhere, all at once. I get it: cooling CPI, a softer labor pulse, and a 10‑year parked near 4.24% are a potent cocktail. But a lot of “tomorrow’s ease” is already in today’s prices.

My bias: lean risk‑on but keep a hand on the dial, favor quality growth with real cash flow, balance AI infrastructure (where profit delivery matters) against software tied to tangible ROI, and use days like this to trim names whose stories now require perfection.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

Next to read: Market Monitor Trends & Breadth Analysis, August 14 BMO