IONQ & RGTI Join DARPA Quantum Initiative: High Stakes Are Ahead

Somewhat surprisingly, two quantum computing stocks have performed very well in April. IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) are up 17% and 19%, respectively, as of the Apr. 10 close. Amid the market madness, the S&P 500 Index is down over 6% during that period.

A major announcement by a significant U.S. government agency is one possible reason these stocks have seen solid returns recently.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has selected IonQ and Rigetti to participate in its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI). The two companies are among the 20 selected for this program. Notably, IonQ and Rigetti are the only pure-play publicly traded quantum stocks selected for the QBI.

DARPA could reveal other similar names, like D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS). However, it has only announced 17 out of the 20 companies selected so far. So, what exactly is the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, and why could it greatly raise the stakes for IonQ and Rigetti?

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DARPA: Moving to Develop Quantum Computers at Extraordinary Speed

DARPA aims to use the QBI to accelerate the timeline for developing useful quantum computers. Many scientists and analysts believe that the world will not see the deployment of useful quantum computers for multiple decades. However, DARPA is setting a much more ambitious target.

They aim to determine by 2033 whether any quantum computing approach can serve real-world industrial purposes. Achieving this would mean that a quantum computer's computational value surpasses its costs.

This is certainly a big initiative to be a part of for IonQ and Rigetti. DARPA is an organization that pushes the boundaries of technological advancement. Many attribute the invention of the Internet and GPS technology to the organization. These are both bedrock components of the world economy today. IonQ and Rigetti are hoping quantum computing can become a bedrock component of the world economy tomorrow. The fact that DARPA is working to accelerate this process is good news for these companies.

DARPA’s Clear Timeline and Technological Expertise Can Provide Quantum Clarity

DARPA has laid out a clear timeline for the initiative. The initiative will take place in three stages. The first will be a “six-month sprint." In this phase, companies will attempt to demonstrate the plausibility of developing a fault-tolerant quantum computer in under ten years. Companies that make it out of this stage will begin the next phase, one year long. DARPA will “rigorously examine their research and development approach” in this second phase.

The final phase will involve testing the components, subsystems, and algorithms developed by these firms. DARPA expects this phase to take another 36 months.

This clear timeline will help markets track the progress of quantum companies. They often make scattered announcements that may not be fully verified by third parties. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has faced this type of criticism. Researchers question whether the company has enough proof to support its claim of building the first topological qubit.

DARPA believes that it has the world’s best quantum computing test and evaluation team. Given DARPA’s historical prowess, this could certainly be true. Thus, successfully making it through all phases of the QBI would provide massive validation of IonQ and Rigetti’s technology.

The selection of the companies in the first place adds at least some validity to their technology. They have already had to go through a rigorous evaluation to even get to this point.

QBI: A Double-Edged Sword for IONQ & RGTI

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Overall, investors should focus on one word regarding this announcement: volatility. Biotech stocks can soar or drop after releasing Food and Drug Administration trial results. IonQ and Rigetti may experience similar volatility with QBI announcements that follow the timeline detailed above. Announcements that they will or will not move on to further phases could send shares soaring or dropping like a rock.

Comments from Joe Altepeter, Program Manager at DARPA, help cement this point. He said that if a company completes the final stage, “we've either shown your concept doesn't work, or we've shown that the US government should get one of these because it's going to change the world.” This opens the door to huge upside or downside events for IonQ and Rigetti.

They will either hear that their technology isn’t good enough, or they will presumably follow a path to gaining potentially huge government contracts. Achieving this would be massive for these businesses and their shares. Meanwhile, failure would hurt investor confidence and likely deal a big blow to their stock prices.

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