Micron’s HBM Wake-Up Call Reboots the AI Trade (and Tariffs Keep Eating Margins)

I’ll be honest: after Wednesday’s tech faceplant, I expected a cautious, low-volume rebound. Instead, Micron kicked the door open and basically shouted: “The AI capex party is not over, HBM is still the VIP section.”

The close: the AI trade gets its mojo back

Thursday finished with a clear “risk-on, but selective” vibe.

The Nasdaq did the heavy lifting again, classic “tech heals first” behavior when a catalyst hits at exactly the right time.

Micron lit the match and HBM did the rest

The driver was Micron (MU | +10.21%), after it delivered a much stronger-than-expected forecast for next quarter - both on revenue and EPS - pointing to sustained demand for HBM (high-bandwidth memory), the stuff that keeps advanced AI training racks humming.

The market read-through was simple (and pretty logical): if Micron is still seeing aggressive HBM orders, then hyperscalers and model builders haven’t slammed the brakes on AI infrastructure.

That spilled into the usual suspects:

• Amazon (AMZN +2.48%)

• Microsoft (MSFT | +1.65%)

• Alphabet (GOOGL | +1.93%)

• Nvidia (NVDA | +1.87%)

Even the “AI plumbing” names participated: CoreWeave (CRWV | +4.85%) caught a strong bid as the broader AI complex stabilized.

On the Street, the bullish notes piled in quickly: Bank of America upgraded Micron, while JPMorgan leaned into the “tight supply through 2026+” narrative, basically arguing that memory pricing power could stay sticky longer than most investors are comfortable underwriting.

Macro: “good” inflation… with an asterisk the size of a shutdown

On paper, the inflation print looked like a relief: headline CPI rose 2.7% YoY and core CPI 2.6% YoY, cooler than expected. The problem is credibility, this release followed a government shutdown that disrupted data collection, so economists (and traders) treated the report like a clean shirt found on a messy bedroom floor: you’ll wear it, but you’re not totally sure what happened to it.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 224,000 (lower than the prior week).

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped to -10.2, badly missing expectations, an uncomfortable reminder that parts of the “real economy” still aren’t feeling the market’s optimism.

Meanwhile, Fed-watchers also got a little political spice: Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that policy may be too tight, and reporting suggested he’s being discussed as a potential future Fed chair.

Oil and geopolitics: Venezuela jitters, but crude stayed calm

WTI was relatively steady after the prior day’s jump, with markets watching escalating rhetoric and shipping restrictions tied to Venezuela. By late day, WTI was around $56/bbl, modestly higher.

FX was also calm: EUR/USD hovered near 1.173.

The other big theme: tariffs are showing up in guidance, not just costs

If Thursday had a “second storyline,” it was this: tariffs are increasingly behaving like a slow leak in margins.

Birkenstock stumbled hard

Birkenstock (BIRK | -11.34%) sank after offering a softer growth outlook and pointing to margin pressure, with management and analysts explicitly flagging tariff effects as part of the squeeze.

Nike beat earnings… then the stock got clipped after-hours

After the bell, Nike (NKE | -10.76% after hours) posted better-than-expected EPS and slightly higher revenue, but gross margin fell 300 bps to 40.6%, largely blamed on tariffs, exactly the kind of detail that makes investors say, “Cool quarter… but what about the next four?”

FedEx delivered (and raised), but disruption risk is real

FedEx (FDX | +1.74%) beat on profit and raised the low end of its full-year EPS outlook. It also highlighted progress toward spinning off FedEx Freight (future ticker FDXF).

One extra wrinkle I’m watching: Reuters noted unexpected costs tied to grounded aircraft and peak-season disruption, stuff that can fade quickly, or linger longer than anyone wants during a fragile macro tape.

A wild card: Trump Media pivots… to fusion

The day’s “did-I-read-that-right” headline belonged to Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT | +41.93%), which announced a roughly $6B all-stock merger with fusion energy firm TAE Technologies (private). The stated logic: AI data centers need power, and fusion is… a very ambitious way to supply it. The stock ripped.

My take heading into Friday

Thursday looked like a classic market reset: AI leadership reasserted itself on a tangible demand signal from Micron, while the “old economy” and consumer/retail names reminded everyone that policy and tariffs don’t care about your multiple expansion story.

If I’m positioning mentally (not advice): I respect the AI bid again, but I’m also treating anything with tariff-exposed margins as “guilty until proven hedged.”

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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