Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that edged past Wall Street's expectations, a result of strong performance in its refining business and record production from key growth assets. However, the energy giant's full-year profit declined from 2024 levels, reflecting the pressure of lower crude oil prices and weaker chemical margins.
Earnings Versus Estimates
For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, ExxonMobil reported earnings of $6.5 billion, or $1.53 per share on a GAAP basis. The company's preferred metric, earnings excluding identified items, came in at $7.3 billion, or $1.71 per share. This non-GAAP EPS figure narrowly beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.70.
The company's sales for the quarter were reported at $82.31 billion, slightly above the estimated $82.24 billion. The results demonstrate the company's ability to navigate a challenging commodity price environment through operational execution.
Market Reaction and Price Action
The market's initial reaction to the earnings beat has been muted to slightly negative. In pre-market trading following the release, ExxonMobil's stock was down approximately 1.5%. This suggests that while the company met or exceeded targets, investors may have been anticipating stronger results or are focusing on the year-over-year decline in profitability. The stock had been on a positive trajectory in the lead-up to the report, gaining over 16% in the past month.
Key Takeaways from the 2025 Results
The full-year 2025 results paint a picture of a company leveraging structural advantages to offset market headwinds. While annual earnings fell to $28.8 billion from $33.7 billion in 2024, management highlighted significant operational milestones and financial discipline.
- Record Production: Full-year net production reached 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, the highest level in over 40 years. This was driven by record output from the Permian Basin (1.6 million barrels per day) and Guyana, which exceeded 700,000 gross barrels per day.
- Refining Strength: The Energy Products segment was a standout, with full-year earnings jumping to $7.4 billion from $4.0 billion in 2024. This was fueled by stronger industry refining margins and record global throughput.
- Shareholder Returns: The company distributed $37.2 billion to shareholders in 2025, split between $17.2 billion in dividends and $20.0 billion in share repurchases. ExxonMobil increased its quarterly dividend by 4%, marking 43 consecutive years of annual dividend-per-share growth.
- Chemical Headwinds: The Chemical Products segment faced significant pressure from weaker industry margins, with full-year earnings dropping to $800 million from $2.6 billion in 2024.
Looking Ahead: Guidance and Analyst Expectations
ExxonMobil provided capital expenditure guidance for 2026, expecting to spend between $27 billion and $29 billion, which is consistent with 2025's cash capex of $29.0 billion. The company also reiterated its plan to repurchase $20 billion of shares through 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.
Analyst estimates for the coming year project a continued path of high revenue but moderated earnings. For the full year 2026, the current consensus sales estimate stands at $321.8 billion, with an EPS estimate of $7.12. For the upcoming first quarter of 2026, analysts are forecasting sales of $78.26 billion and EPS of $1.67.
Chairman and CEO Darren Woods framed the 2025 performance as evidence of a "fundamentally stronger company," stating that its transformation is delivering "a more resilient, lower-cost, technology-led business with structurally stronger earnings power." The focus remains on disciplined capital allocation and growth from advantaged assets in the Permian, Guyana, and LNG.
For a detailed breakdown of ExxonMobil's historical earnings and future analyst estimates, you can review the data here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial analysis, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
