Murphy USA Inc (NYSE:MUSA) reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, delivering earnings that surpassed analyst expectations while revenue fell slightly short of forecasts. The market's initial reaction appears muted, with the stock showing modest gains over recent weeks leading into the report.
Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates
The convenience store and fuel retailer posted a strong bottom-line performance for the quarter. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) came in at $7.53, solidly exceeding the consensus analyst estimate of $6.91. This represents a year-over-year increase from $6.96 per share in Q4 2024.
On the top line, the company reported quarterly revenue of $4.74 billion. This figure came in below the analyst estimate of $4.95 billion. The discrepancy highlights a quarter where robust profitability, driven by margin management and cost controls, outpaced total sales growth.
- Q4 2025 Reported EPS: $7.53
- Q4 2025 Analyst EPS Estimate: $6.91
- Result: Beat by $0.62
- Q4 2025 Reported Revenue: $4.74 billion
- Q4 2025 Analyst Revenue Estimate: $4.95 billion
- Result: Miss by approximately $210 million
Market Reaction and Price Action
In the lead-up to the earnings release, MUSA shares demonstrated positive momentum. The stock gained approximately 5.5% over the past week and 4.4% over the past month, suggesting investor optimism or positioning ahead of the results. The immediate after-hours reaction following the report was flat, indicating a potential balancing act between the positive earnings beat and the revenue miss as the market digests the full report and guidance.
Key Highlights from the Quarter
The earnings press release underscored the resilience of Murphy USA's operating model. President and CEO Mindy West noted that fourth-quarter results were "strong across the board," benefiting from higher fuel margins introduced by market volatility.
Fuel Performance: Total fuel contribution increased to 34.3 cents per gallon (cpg) from 32.5 cpg in the prior-year quarter. Retail fuel volumes grew by 3.1% for the chain, though same-store sales (SSS) volumes declined slightly by 0.6%.
Merchandise Growth: Merchandise contribution dollars rose 2.1% to $213.2 million, with average unit margins remaining healthy at 19.6%. For the full year, merchandise contribution increased by 4.2%.
Capital Returns: The company remained aggressive in returning capital to shareholders. During Q4, it repurchased approximately 175,400 common shares for $67.5 million. For the full year, share repurchases totaled $652.0 million. The quarterly dividend was increased by 18.9% to $0.63 per share in December.
Store Growth: Murphy USA exceeded its organic growth target for 2025, putting 51 new-to-industry stores into service against a goal of 50. The company ended the year with 1,800 total stores and has 19 new locations currently under construction.
Forward Outlook and Analyst Comparisons
Management provided detailed guidance for 2026, which offers a basis for comparison against current analyst projections. The company expects merchandise contribution between $890 and $900 million, capital expenditures of $475 to $525 million, and a same-store fuel volume change ranging from a decline of 3.0% to 1.0%.
For modeling purposes, management indicated that using the midpoint of its guidance ranges and an assumed all-in fuel margin of 30.5 cpg, it would expect net income of approximately $439 million and Adjusted EBITDA of about $1.0 billion for 2026.
Analyst estimates for the coming year project sales of $20.42 billion and revenue of $25.86 billion for the full year 2026. For the upcoming first quarter, analysts are estimating sales of $4.80 billion and revenue of $3.38 billion. Investors will likely monitor execution against the company's guidance to see if it can meet or exceed these external expectations.
For a detailed breakdown of historical earnings and future analyst estimates for Murphy USA, visit the earnings and estimates page.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. The information presented should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
