Post-Turkey Rally: Bulls Run Wild on Black Friday

The "Food Coma" Rally

I hope you all enjoyed the turkey and managed to stay awake for the shortened trading session on Black Friday.

While many of us were still digesting our Thanksgiving feasts, Wall Street decided to serve up a surprisingly robust dessert. The markets closed at 1:00 PM EST, but the bulls didn’t need a full day to make a statement.

The S&P 500 locked in a gain of 3.7% for the week, its best Thanksgiving performance since 2012. The Dow Jones added 0.6% on Friday, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.7%. It seems investors are shaking off the "AI jitteriness" and betting big on an end-of-year rally.

Chip Wars: The Tables Turn

The real drama this week wasn't at the dinner table; it was in the semiconductor sector. We are witnessing a fascinating rotation that might force some of you to rethink your tech exposure.

Intel's Resurrection

Just when we thought Intel (INTC | +10.19%) was down for the count, the chipmaker roared back on Black Friday. The catalyst? Renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released a report suggesting Intel is set to become a supplier for Apple starting in 2027.

According to Kuo’s industry surveys, Intel could be manufacturing chips for the Cupertino giant, a massive vote of confidence that has brightened Intel's long-term outlook significantly. The stock has nearly doubled this year, fueled by government backing and Nvidia’s own investments.

Nvidia's Stumble & The Google Threat

On the flip side, the king of AI, Nvidia (NVDA | -13% in November), is looking vulnerable. Despite strong earnings, the stock had a rough November. Why? Because the market is realizing they aren't the only game in town anymore.

Investors are worrying about the rapid ascent of the "Google chip," a collaboration between Alphabet (GOOGL | +14% in Nov) and Broadcom (AVGO | +18% last week).

Alphabet is flexing its muscles with the launch of its Gemini 3 chatbot and a strategic deal with Meta to use its chips. This has reignited enthusiasm for Google’s AI potential, allowing it to close November with a stellar 14% gain. Meanwhile, Broadcom has quietly become a titan, with its market cap climbing to $1.9 trillion after an 18% weekly surge.

Macro Moves: The Fed & The Consumer

Beyond the tech drama, the macro backdrop is heating up as we head into the final stretch of 2025.

The Fed Pivot:

With only 20 trading days left in the year, all eyes are glued to the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10. The market is now pricing in an 82% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. This optimism is the fuel behind the recent rally.

Yields & Currencies:

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.024%, while the Euro/Dollar pair hovered around 1.16.

Retail Therapy:

Amazon (AMZN | +1.77%) is doing its part to keep the economy humming. Analysts believe the e-commerce giant is well-positioned to capture a large slice of holiday spending, leveraging aggressive Black Friday promotions to lure in budget-conscious Americans.

Crypto Corner: Bitcoin Holds High Ground

It wasn't just stocks that saw action. The crypto market remains buoyant, with Bitcoin hovering around $92,000 after touching that level during Thursday's thin trading.

While Bitcoin slipped slightly on Friday, proxy stocks pushed higher:

Coinbase (COIN | +2.96%)

MicroStrategy (MSTR | +0.88%)

Robinhood (HOOD | +0.23%)

My Take

With the Federal Reserve meeting looming on December 10 and the market pricing in an 82% probability of a rate cut, we are sitting on a binary event. When the market is this certain, the risk isn't just in the direction of the move, but in the reaction to news that is already "baked in."

If the Fed delivers the expected cut, the immediate reaction might be muted (the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon), but the structural trend remains bullish for risk assets.

If I were managing a portfolio with heavy tech/crypto exposure right now, I wouldn't be chasing the rally blindly.

Consider looking at your portfolio's "Beta" (volatility relative to the market). If a Fed disappointment occurs, Nvidia and Bitcoin proxies (like Coinbase) will hurt the most. Alphabet appears to be the "safer" growth play right now given its recent relative strength and favorable sentiment shift.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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