Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) reported fourth-quarter financial results for 2025 that surpassed analyst expectations on the top and bottom lines, though the company continues to navigate a significant post-pandemic transition marked by declining COVID-19 vaccine revenue.
Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates
For the quarter ending December 31, 2025, Moderna reported revenue of $678 million, a figure that exceeded the consensus analyst estimate of approximately $638.6 million. This beat, however, comes against a backdrop of sharply reduced sales for its COVID-19 products. Revenue declined 30% compared to the $966 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2024.
On profitability, the company reported a GAAP net loss per share of $2.11. This result was notably better than the analyst forecast for a loss of $2.70 per share, representing an earnings beat of roughly 18.9%.
- Reported Q4 2025 Revenue: $678 million
- Analyst Estimate: ~$638.6 million
- Result: Beat
- Reported Q4 2025 GAAP EPS: -$2.11
- Analyst Estimate: -$2.70
- Result: Beat
Market Reaction and Price Action
The immediate market reaction to the earnings report has been muted to slightly negative in pre-market trading. This suggests that while the quarterly beat was acknowledged, investors are likely focusing on the broader challenges and forward guidance. The company's stock had experienced pressure in the weeks leading up to the report, declining over 14% in the prior two-week period.
The tempered reaction may reflect several factors: the ongoing year-over-year revenue decline, a cautious outlook for near-term growth, and the high costs associated with advancing its extensive clinical pipeline. The beat itself may have been anticipated, as recent news headlines indicated COVID vaccine demand had not fallen as sharply as some feared.
Key Elements from the Earnings Report
Beyond the quarterly figures, management provided a detailed update on its strategic pivot and pipeline progress.
Financial Discipline and 2026 Outlook: Moderna emphasized significant cost reductions, stating it lowered annual operating expenses by approximately $2.2 billion in 2025. For 2026, the company reiterated a plan to deliver up to 10% revenue growth over 2025's $1.9 billion total, driven by its seasonal vaccine portfolio and international partnerships. This growth target appears conservative when compared to the current full-year 2026 analyst sales estimate of $2.05 billion. The company also projects a year-end 2026 cash balance between $5.5 and $6.0 billion.
Pipeline Milestones: The press release highlighted several near-term catalysts expected in 2026:
- Regulatory Progress: Filings for its standalone influenza vaccine (mRNA-1010) are under review in the EU, Canada, and Australia, though the U.S. FDA issued a Refusal-to-File letter, requiring further discussion. The flu/COVID combination vaccine (mRNA-1083) is under review in Europe and Canada.
- Clinical Readouts: Key data readouts are anticipated for the Phase 3 norovirus vaccine, Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma data for its cancer vaccine (mRNA-4157) in collaboration with Merck, and Phase 2 data for its wholly-owned oncology candidate mRNA-4359.
- Rare Disease: A data readout is expected for its propionic acidemia candidate, mRNA-3927.
Conclusion
Moderna's fourth-quarter performance demonstrated an ability to manage costs and exceed diminished expectations during a transitional phase. The earnings and revenue beats, however, are set against a clear trend of declining legacy product sales. Investor attention is now firmly fixed on the company's ability to successfully launch new products and convert its deep pipeline into commercial successes, starting with potential approvals and data readouts in the year ahead. The company's own revenue growth guidance for 2026 suggests a measured pace for this transition.
For a detailed look at Moderna's historical earnings, future estimates, and analyst projections, you can review the data here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, an endorsement, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
