CARRIER GLOBAL CORP (NYSE:CARR), a global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on February 5, 2026. The company's performance fell short of Wall Street's expectations, leading to a sharp negative reaction in pre-market trading.
Earnings and Revenue Miss
The core figures from the fourth quarter reveal a clear deviation from analyst forecasts. The company reported both a top-line and bottom-line miss for the period.
- Reported Q4 Revenue: $4.84 billion
- Estimated Q4 Revenue: $5.10 billion
- Reported Q4 Adjusted EPS: $0.34
- Estimated Q4 Adjusted EPS: $0.38
The revenue shortfall was significant, with the company noting a 6% decline in net sales and a 9% drop in organic sales for the quarter. This indicates that the miss was not solely due to currency fluctuations or acquisitions/divestitures but reflects weaker underlying demand or competitive pressures. The adjusted earnings per share, while positive, also came in below the consensus estimate, suggesting margin pressures or higher costs impacted profitability.
Market Reaction and Recent Performance
The market's immediate response to the earnings release was decisively negative. In pre-market trading, shares of Carrier Global were down approximately 7.2%. This sharp decline contrasts with the stock's recent positive trajectory, where it had gained roughly 10% over the past two weeks and nearly 19% over the past month. The pre-market sell-off suggests investors were disappointed by the quarterly results and are reassessing the company's near-term growth prospects.
Press Release Summary and 2026 Outlook
The press release highlighted the company's full-year 2025 results alongside its fourth-quarter performance. More importantly, Carrier provided its financial outlook for the full year 2026. The company's forward-looking guidance will be a key focus for investors as they gauge whether the Q4 weakness is a temporary setback or part of a longer-term trend.
While the specific numerical outlook from Carrier's management was not detailed in the provided summary, it can be compared to existing analyst estimates for context. Analysts, on average, are currently forecasting the following for Carrier in 2026:
- Estimated Full-Year 2026 Revenue: $23.06 billion
- Estimated Full-Year 2026 EPS: $3.01
- Estimated Q1 2026 Revenue: $5.22 billion
- Estimated Q1 2026 EPS: $0.57
Investors will scrutinize the company's official 2026 outlook against these benchmarks. A guidance range that meets or exceeds these estimates could help stabilize the stock, while a more conservative forecast may validate the current negative market sentiment.
Looking Ahead
The immediate challenge for Carrier Global is to address the concerns raised by its Q4 miss. Management's commentary on the earnings call regarding the causes of the sales decline—whether due to economic cyclicality, inventory corrections in its channels, or market share loss—will be critical. Furthermore, the detailed 2026 outlook will provide essential insight into the company's confidence in its growth and margin recovery plans. For now, the pre-market reaction indicates that the results have disrupted the recent positive momentum in the stock.
For a detailed breakdown of historical earnings, future estimates, and analyst projections, you can review the full data on Chartmill: Carrier Global Corp (CARR) Earnings & Estimates.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
