American Express Co (NYSE:AXP) reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, delivering a mixed performance that has elicited a cautious response from investors in early trading.
Earnings Snapshot: A Narrow Miss on Revenue
The company’s Q4 2025 results presented a nuanced picture. While American Express demonstrated solid year-over-year growth, it fell slightly short of Wall Street’s expectations on the top line, even as it met profit forecasts.
- Reported Revenue: $18.98 billion, representing a 10.6% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
- Analyst Revenue Estimate: $19.11 billion.
- Reported Non-GAAP EPS: $3.53, aligning with the consensus analyst estimate of $3.57.
The revenue miss, though relatively narrow at approximately 0.7%, appears to be the focal point for the market’s initial reaction. In pre-market trading following the release, AXP shares are indicated down roughly 2.2%, suggesting investor disappointment with the sales figure despite the double-digit growth.
Market Reaction and Recent Performance
The immediate pre-market decline contrasts with the stock’s performance over recent weeks. Prior to the earnings announcement, shares had shown resilience, trading largely flat over the past month and the last two weeks. This indicates that the market was positioned for the report and is now adjusting based on the specifics of the release. The negative gap at the open suggests the revenue shortfall is outweighing the positive aspects of the report in the near term.
Summary of the Earnings Release
The company’s press release served primarily as an announcement that its full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 financial results are now available on its Investor Relations website. It did not provide specific financial figures or a forward-looking outlook within the release text. The announcement highlighted the scheduled investor conference call, where management likely provided deeper commentary on the quarterly performance, segment results, and guidance for the coming year. The release reiterated American Express’s position as a global payments and lifestyle brand, emphasizing its network of over a hundred million merchant locations.
Looking Ahead: Analyst Expectations for 2026
With no formal company outlook provided in the press release, Wall Street’s existing estimates offer a benchmark for future performance. Analysts are forecasting continued growth for American Express in the upcoming year.
- Q1 2026 Estimates: Revenue is projected at $18.74 billion, with earnings per share estimated at $4.02.
- Full-Year 2026 Estimates: For the entire year, the consensus sales estimate stands at $79.40 billion, with a revenue estimate of $17.60 billion.
These figures will be a key reference point as investors digest management’s commentary from the earnings call for any indications of whether the company expects to meet, exceed, or fall short of these projections.
Conclusion
American Express’s fourth-quarter results underscore the high expectations embedded in its stock price. Delivering strong double-digit revenue growth was not sufficient to satisfy the market, as the slight miss against estimates has triggered a sell-off. The focus now shifts to the company’s commentary on the drivers behind the quarter, the health of its consumer and commercial segments, and its strategy for navigating the economic landscape in 2026. The alignment with EPS estimates provides a floor of support, but the revenue performance will be scrutinized for signs of a trend or a one-quarter anomaly.
For a detailed breakdown of historical earnings, future estimates, and analyst ratings, you can review the data here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
