Saia Inc (NASDAQ:SAIA) reported its fourth-quarter financial results for 2025, delivering a performance that presented a mixed picture for investors. While the company's revenue narrowly surpassed analyst expectations, a significant year-over-year decline in profitability and a soft outlook for core operational performance appeared to weigh on the stock in pre-market trading.
Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates
The quarter's headline figures reveal a company navigating a challenging freight environment. Saia reported revenue of $790.0 million, a marginal 0.1% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. This figure did manage to edge past the analyst consensus estimate of approximately $789.5 million.
The more telling metric was profitability. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.77, a sharp 37.6% decrease from the $2.84 reported in the prior-year period. This result fell meaningfully short of the $1.94 per share that analysts had projected. The company noted that adjusted diluted EPS for the full year 2025, which excludes a net gain on real estate, was $9.11, down from $13.51 in 2024.
Market Reaction and Price Action
The market's immediate reaction to the report was negative. In pre-market trading following the earnings release, Saia's stock was down approximately 3.8%. This decline suggests investors are focusing on the substantial drop in earnings and the underlying operational pressures more than the slight revenue beat. The pre-market move contrasts with the stock's performance over the past month, which had been modestly positive.
Key Takeaways from the Press Release
A closer look at the operational details within the press release helps explain the profit contraction. The core less-than-truckload (LTL) business showed signs of soft demand and pricing pressure, while costs rose.
- Operating Performance: The operating ratio, a key measure of efficiency where a lower number is better, deteriorated to 91.9% from 87.1% a year ago. For the full year, the adjusted operating ratio was 89.6%, compared to 85.0% in 2024.
- Volume and Pricing: LTL tonnage per workday decreased 1.5% for the quarter, and revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharge, increased only 0.5%. This indicates a challenging environment for raising prices to offset costs.
- Cost Pressures: The company cited approximately $4.7 million in elevated self-insurance costs from prior-year accidents as a specific headwind in the quarter. More broadly, salaries, wages, and benefits—the company's largest expense—increased significantly year-over-year.
- Capital Expenditures and Outlook: Management highlighted a record level of capital investment over the past three years to expand its national network. Net capital expenditures for 2025 were $544.1 million, down from over $1.0 billion in 2024. For 2026, the company anticipates net capital expenditures to be between $350 million and $400 million. While this indicates a continued investment in growth, the press release did not provide specific financial guidance for the coming year.
Looking Ahead
Analyst estimates currently project Saia's revenue for the first quarter of 2026 to be around $801.5 million, with earnings per share estimated at $2.01. For the full year 2026, the sales estimate stands at approximately $3.44 billion. The company's ability to improve its operating ratio, manage costs, and leverage its expanded national footprint to win profitable market share will be critical in determining whether it can meet or exceed these future expectations.
For a detailed look at Saia's upcoming earnings estimates and historical performance, you can review the data here.
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