QFIN HOLDINGS INC-ADR (NASDAQ:QFIN) Stock Plummets on Q3 2025 Earnings Miss and Weak Guidance

Qfin Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:QFIN) reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, delivering a performance that fell short of analyst expectations on profitability despite a slight revenue beat. The market reacted negatively to the earnings release, with shares declining sharply in after-hours trading.

Earnings and Revenue Performance

The Chinese Credit-Tech platform posted total net revenue of RMB 5.21 billion (approximately $731.2 million) for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. This figure narrowly exceeded analyst estimates of RMB 5.08 billion. However, the company's bottom-line results disappointed investors.

• Reported Non-GAAP EPS: RMB 10.80 ($1.52)
• Analyst Estimated Non-GAAP EPS: RMB 12.04
• Reported Revenue: RMB 5.21 billion
• Analyst Estimated Revenue: RMB 5.08 billion

The earnings per ADS miss of approximately 10% appears to be the primary driver behind the negative investor sentiment. While revenue growth was maintained, profitability metrics showed a sequential decline from the prior quarter.

Market Reaction and Price Action

The financial markets delivered a clear verdict on the earnings report. Following the release, QFIN stock experienced a significant drop.

• After-Market Performance: -11.9%
• Last Month Performance: -12.1%

This sharp decline erases the stock's modest gains from the previous two weeks and underscores investor concern over the compression in net income, which fell to RMB 1.43 billion from RMB 1.73 billion in the prior quarter.

Business Highlights and Operational Metrics

The earnings release highlighted several key operational achievements, demonstrating continued growth in the company's user base and platform scale, even as it navigates a challenging environment.

• Cumulative Consumers: 283.7 million, an 11.6% year-over-year increase.
• Cumulative Borrowers: 38.1 million, a 15.1% year-over-year increase.
• Total Loan Facilitation Volume: RMB 83.3 billion, a slight 1.0% increase year-over-year.
• 90 Day+ Delinquency Rate: 2.09% as of September 30, 2025.

Management commentary pointed to a "rather challenging period" in the latter part of the quarter, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory changes that necessitated operational adjustments and tighter risk standards.

Financial Outlook and Analyst Estimates

Looking ahead, Qfin Holdings provided a conservative business outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, which is significantly below current analyst expectations.

The company expects:

• Q4 2025 Net Income Guidance: RMB 0.92 - 1.12 billion
• Q4 2025 Non-GAAP Net Income Guidance: RMB 1.0 - 1.2 billion

This guidance represents a projected year-on-year decline of 39% to 49%. In contrast, analysts have been estimating revenue of RMB 5.21 billion for the fourth quarter. The substantial guidance cut for the upcoming quarter likely contributed to the negative market reaction, signaling that near-term headwinds are expected to persist.

For a more detailed breakdown of historical earnings and future analyst estimates for QFIN, you can review the data here.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, nor does it recommend buying or selling any securities. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.