First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) Reports Mixed Q3 2025 Results

First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) has released its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, presenting a mixed performance relative to analyst expectations. The company's top-line revenue demonstrated strength, while its bottom-line earnings per share fell short of forecasts, creating a complex picture for investors.

Earnings and Revenue Performance

The company's Q3 2025 financial results highlight a clear divergence between revenue achievement and profitability.

• Revenue: The company reported revenue of $316.0 million, narrowly surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $315.0 million.
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): First Watch reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.05, which came in below the analyst estimate of $0.067.

This revenue beat, albeit slight, indicates resilient consumer demand and effective sales execution. However, the miss on EPS suggests that higher costs or investments during the quarter pressured profitability more than analysts had anticipated. The earnings shortfall appears to be the primary driver behind the stock's negative price action in the immediate aftermath of the report.

Market Reaction

The market's response to these mixed results has been cautiously negative, particularly in the short term. The stock has experienced downward pressure, reflecting investor focus on the earnings miss. In pre-market trading following the release, the stock showed a significant decline. This negative sentiment has persisted over the past two weeks, with the stock's performance down approximately 12.4%. However, when viewed over the past month, the stock has been nearly flat, suggesting that some of the negative momentum may have been priced in ahead of the earnings release or that longer-term holders remain steady.

Quarterly Highlights and Expansion

Beyond the earnings figures, the press release outlined several strong operational achievements for First Watch. The company posted a robust same-restaurant sales growth of 7.1%, a key metric that indicates healthy performance at established locations. Total revenue saw a substantial increase of 25.6% compared to the prior year, fueled by both this comparable sales growth and the company's aggressive expansion strategy. During the quarter, First Watch opened 21 new system-wide restaurants across 14 states, significantly expanding its physical footprint and future revenue potential. The company also reported a net income of $3.0 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $34.1 million.

Forward Outlook and Analyst Estimates

The press release did not provide a specific quantitative financial outlook for the coming periods. However, analyst estimates offer a benchmark for future performance. For the upcoming fourth quarter of 2025, the consensus estimates are as follows:

• Estimated Q4 2025 Revenue: $325.5 million
• Estimated Q4 2025 EPS: $0.084

For the full 2025 fiscal year, analysts are estimating sales of $1.24 billion. Investors will be watching the company's next earnings report closely to see if the strong revenue trends can continue and if management can implement strategies to improve profitability and meet or exceed these EPS projections.

For a detailed breakdown of historical earnings, future estimates, and analyst revisions, you can review the data here: First Watch Earnings & Estimates.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their individual financial circumstances before making any investment decisions.