CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:CSX) Reports Q4 2025 Earnings Miss, Stock Dips

CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:CSX) reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after the market close on Wednesday, January 22, 2026. The freight rail giant's figures presented a mixed picture, with earnings per share and revenue falling short of Wall Street's expectations, leading to a muted initial market reaction.

Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates

The core financial metrics for the quarter came in below analyst consensus forecasts. The company's performance highlights the ongoing challenges of a subdued industrial demand environment, as noted by management.

• Revenue: Reported revenue of $3.51 billion was essentially flat compared to the $3.52 billion in the prior-year quarter. However, this figure missed the analyst estimate of $3.58 billion.
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): The company reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.39. This result was $0.0252, or approximately 6.1%, below the consensus estimate of $0.4152.

For the full year 2025, CSX reported revenue of $14.09 billion, adjusted operating income of $4.69 billion, and adjusted EPS of $1.61.

Market Reaction and Price Action

The market's immediate response to the earnings miss was negative but measured. In after-hours trading following the release, CSX stock declined approximately 3.2%. This movement suggests investors were disappointed by the dual shortfall on the top and bottom lines. The reaction aligns with the stock's recent performance, which has seen little net change over the past month, indicating a period of consolidation and uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Key Takeaways from the Press Release

Beyond the headline numbers, CSX's earnings release outlined several important financial and strategic points.

• Cost Management Actions: The quarterly results included approximately $50 million in expenses related to employee severance and the rationalization of specific technology investments. This reduced operating income and EPS by $0.02 for the quarter, indicating active steps to adjust the company's cost structure in response to market conditions.
• Mixed Volume and Pricing: Revenue was pressured by lower merchandise volume and reduced export coal revenue. These headwinds were partially offset by higher pricing in merchandise and intermodal segments, an increase in intermodal volume, and higher fuel surcharge revenue.
• Resilient Margins: Despite the revenue decline, CSX maintained a strong operating margin of 31.6% for the quarter. For the full year, the adjusted operating margin was 33.2%, demonstrating the company's ability to manage costs effectively in a softer demand environment.
• Management Outlook: CEO Steve Angel stated that the company is "positioned to deliver improved financial performance in 2026," focusing on productivity, cost control, and capital discipline. This forward-looking statement suggests confidence in the company's operational foundation and strategic initiatives.

Looking Ahead: Estimates vs. Outlook

While CSX expressed a positive outlook for improved performance in 2026, it did not provide specific quantitative guidance. This leaves analysts' estimates as the primary benchmark for future expectations. Currently, consensus estimates project:

• Q1 2026 Revenue: $3.57 billion
• Q1 2026 EPS: $0.42
• Full-Year 2026 Revenue: $14.86 billion
• Full-Year 2026 EPS: $1.92

The company's ability to meet or exceed these estimates will hinge on a recovery in industrial volumes and the successful execution of its cost-control and productivity measures.

For a detailed look at historical earnings, future estimates, and analyst projections, you can view the full earnings and estimates data for CSX Corp. here.

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