Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN) Q3 2025 Earnings: EPS Beats, Revenue Misses Estimates

Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN) has released its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, delivering a performance that narrowly surpassed analyst expectations on profitability while falling just short on the top line. The market's immediate reaction has been muted, reflecting a period of digestion for the mixed report.

Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates

The company's results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, presented a nuanced picture when held against Wall Street's projections. The key figures highlight a slight beat on the bottom line, which appears to have balanced out a minor revenue miss.

• Reported Revenue: $683 million
• Estimated Revenue: $684.3 million
• Reported Non-GAAP EPS: $1.09
• Estimated Non-GAAP EPS: $1.00

The earnings per share outperformance of nearly 9% suggests effective cost management or other operational efficiencies that boosted profitability, even as revenue came in approximately 0.2% below expectations. This narrow miss on sales indicates that the company's core business performed largely in line with forecasts.

Market Reaction and Recent Performance

The initial after-hours trading session showed a stock essentially treading water, with a minimal gain of approximately 0.1%. This neutral immediate response aligns with the conflicting signals from the earnings and revenue figures. A broader look at the stock's performance reveals a period of recent strength, though the longer-term trend remains flat.

• Last Week Performance: +9.3%
• Last Two Weeks Performance: +5.6%
• Last Month Performance: -0.2%

The positive momentum over the past two weeks suggests that investors may have been anticipating a solid report, and the confirmed earnings beat has, for now, prevented a sell-off. The lack of a significant rally, however, points to a degree of caution, potentially due to the slight revenue shortfall or broader market conditions.

Press Release Summary and Strategic Context

Beyond the quarterly numbers, the press release underscored the company's ongoing commitment to capital investment. A significant announcement detailed a new $280 to $300 million capital project dubbed "Victory Run" at the flagship Churchill Downs Racetrack, scheduled to debut in time for the 2028 Kentucky Derby. This indicates a long-term growth strategy focused on enhancing its premier assets and guest experiences, a move aimed at securing future revenue streams rather than providing an immediate financial impact.

Looking Ahead

With the third quarter results now public, investor attention will shift to the company's trajectory for the remainder of the fiscal year and the critical fourth quarter. Analyst estimates provide a benchmark for future performance.

• Q4 2025 Estimated Revenue: $671.3 million
• Q4 2025 Estimated EPS: $1.02
• Full-Year 2025 Estimated Revenue: $2.96 billion
• Full-Year 2025 Estimated EPS: $6.30

The company did not provide a specific financial outlook in the press release to compare against these estimates. The absence of forward guidance is a neutral factor and does not inherently explain the stock's current price action. The market will be watching for any commentary on whether the company is on track to meet these full-year expectations.

For a detailed breakdown of historical earnings, future estimates, and analyst ratings, you can review the data on the CHDN earnings and estimates page.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.