Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (NYSE:ADM) reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, delivering adjusted earnings that surpassed analyst expectations but against a backdrop of sharply lower year-over-year profits and a significant revenue miss. The agricultural processing giant also provided its initial outlook for 2026, which sets a cautious tone as the company navigates persistent external challenges.
Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates
ADM’s fourth-quarter performance presented a mixed picture relative to Wall Street forecasts. The company’s focus on operational efficiency and cost control helped it exceed bottom-line expectations, but top-line results were significantly weaker than anticipated.
- Adjusted EPS: The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.87 for Q4 2025. This figure came in above the analyst consensus estimate of $0.80.
- Revenue: Reported revenue of $18.56 billion fell substantially short of the estimated $21.33 billion, representing a notable miss.
The market’s immediate reaction to the report was negative. In pre-market trading, ADM shares were down approximately 4.2%, indicating investor concern that overshadowed the earnings beat. This suggests the market is placing greater weight on the significant revenue shortfall and the broader pressures detailed in the report, rather than the modest EPS surprise.
Full-Year 2025 Summary and Segment Performance
The full-year results underscore a challenging period for ADM, marked by what CEO Juan Luciano described as a "dynamic global trade landscape and ongoing uncertainty around U.S. biofuel policy."
For the full year 2025, ADM reported:
- Net earnings of $1.1 billion (GAAP EPS of $2.23), down 39% from 2024.
- Adjusted net earnings of $1.7 billion (adjusted EPS of $3.43), a 28% decline.
- Total segment operating profit of $3.2 billion, down 23% year-over-year.
A segment breakdown reveals where the pressures were most acute:
- Ag Services & Oilseeds (AS&O): Segment operating profit fell 34% for the year to $1.6 billion. The crushing business was particularly hard hit, with profit down 81%, driven by weaker crush margins in North and South America.
- Carbohydrate Solutions: Profit declined 12% to $1.2 billion. While the Vantage Corn Processors (ethanol) subsegment saw strong growth, this was more than offset by weakness in Starches and Sweeteners due to lower global demand and high corn costs in Europe.
- Nutrition: This was the sole segment to show full-year growth, with operating profit up 8% to $417 million, driven by a 66% surge in Animal Nutrition profits.
2026 Outlook and Comparison to Analyst Estimates
Looking ahead, ADM provided its current outlook for 2026, which hinges heavily on the resolution of key external factors. The company expects adjusted EPS in a range of approximately $3.60 to $4.25.
This guidance presents a nuanced picture when held against current analyst expectations:
- Guidance Midpoint vs. Consensus: The midpoint of ADM's guidance range is $3.93. This sits below the current analyst consensus estimate for full-year 2026 EPS of $4.28.
- A Policy-Dependent Range: Management explicitly stated that achieving the higher end of its guidance range is largely dependent on the timing of U.S. biofuel policy clarity. The earlier the clarity, the greater the opportunity to benefit from an expected improvement in the operating environment. The lower end of the range assumes a continuation of current challenges, including flat crush margins.
For the first quarter of 2026, analysts are currently estimating EPS of $0.88 on sales of $21.72 billion. ADM did not provide specific quarterly guidance.
Conclusion
ADM’s fourth-quarter earnings report highlights a company successfully managing controllable costs to deliver a modest earnings beat, but struggling against formidable external headwinds that crushed revenue and full-year profits. The market’s negative reaction reflects concerns over these broader pressures and a 2026 outlook that, at its midpoint, suggests a more conservative recovery path than analysts currently project. The company’s performance in the coming year will be intrinsically linked to improvements in global trade flows and, most critically, long-awaited clarity on U.S. biofuel policy.
For a detailed look at ADM’s historical earnings and future analyst estimates, you can review the data here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
