Smurfit Westrock PLC (NYSE:SW) Q3 2025 Earnings Miss Estimates, Sending Shares Lower

Smurfit Westrock PLC (NYSE:SW) has reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, delivering a performance that fell short of analyst expectations on key profitability metrics, which appears to be driving a negative market reaction in pre-market trading.

Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates

The company's quarterly results presented a mixed financial picture when measured against Wall Street forecasts. While revenue was relatively close to expectations, earnings per share came in significantly below analyst projections.

• Revenue: Reported net sales of $8.00 billion, slightly below the analyst consensus estimate of $8.13 billion.
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Reported Adjusted EPS of $0.58, which missed the analyst estimate of $0.73 by a considerable margin.

This earnings miss is the most prominent figure from the report and is the primary candidate for explaining the subsequent market movement. In pre-market trading, the stock was down approximately 4.6%, indicating investor disappointment with the bottom-line performance.

Quarterly Performance Summary

The third-quarter report highlighted several key financial achievements and challenges for the packaging giant. The company demonstrated solid operational cash flow generation and a significant year-over-year improvement in profitability.

• Net income for the quarter was $245 million, a substantial recovery from a net loss of $150 million in the same period last year.
• Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.30 billion, with a margin of 16.3%.
• The company generated $1.13 billion in net cash from operating activities and $579 million in Adjusted Free Cash Flow.
• A quarterly dividend of $0.4308 per ordinary share was declared.

Regional Segment Performance

Smurfit Westrock's operations showed varied strength across its global segments, with North America leading in both scale and profitability.

• North America: Generated $810 million in Adjusted EBITDA, with a margin of 17.2%, driven by operational improvements and a focus on value over volume.
• EMEA and APAC: Delivered $419 million in Adjusted EBITDA, with a margin of 14.8%, demonstrating resilience in a challenging demand environment.
• Latin America: Achieved an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.3%, the highest among the regions, contributing $116 million despite a slight sequential decline due to a resolved one-time operational issue.

Forward Outlook and Analyst Comparisons

Management provided updated full-year guidance, adjusting expectations downward due to a challenging demand backdrop. The company now anticipates full-year Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $4.9 to $5.1 billion. This revised outlook reflects the impact of expected additional economic downtime in the fourth quarter to optimize the system. For context, the analyst sales estimate for the full year 2025 stands at $32.31 billion.

Looking ahead to the next quarter, analysts have set expectations for Q4 2025 revenue at $8.02 billion and EPS at $0.68. The company's ability to meet these forecasts will be closely watched, particularly in light of the planned operational adjustments.

CEO Tony Smurfit expressed confidence in the company's trajectory, stating, "The steps we have taken, and continue to take, are building a better business and as we end 2025 and enter 2026 we are a much stronger Company, increasingly excited about our future prospects."

For a detailed breakdown of future earnings estimates and historical performance, review the earnings and estimates data for SMURFIT WESTROCK PLC.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial analysis, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.