SERA Prognostics (NASDAQ:SERA) Reports Mixed Q3 2025 Results with Revenue Miss and Narrower-Than-Expected Loss

SERA Prognostics Inc-A (NASDAQ:SERA), a company dedicated to improving maternal and neonatal health through its PreTRM® test for predicting preterm birth risk, reported its third quarter 2025 financial results. The company's performance against analyst expectations and the subsequent market reaction highlight key challenges and investor sentiment.

Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

The company's reported figures for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, showed a significant deviation from Wall Street's forecasts. While the earnings per share figure showed a narrower loss than anticipated, revenue fell substantially short of expectations.

• Reported Revenue: $20,000
• Estimated Revenue: $86,700
• Reported EPS (Non-GAAP): -$0.16
• Estimated EPS (Non-GAAP): -$0.204

The revenue miss of over 76% is a primary point of concern, overshadowing the positive surprise on the bottom line where the company's loss per share was less than analysts had projected. The press release emphasized the company's ongoing focus on its commercial launch and its mission to provide innovative biomarker information to improve pregnancy outcomes.

Market Reaction and Price Action

The immediate market response to the earnings release has been notably positive in after-hours trading. This suggests that investors may be focusing more on the earnings beat and the company's long-term potential rather than the significant revenue shortfall in the quarter.

• After-Market Performance: +2.71%

This positive after-hours movement contrasts with the stock's performance over recent weeks, which has been more subdued. Over the past month, the stock has declined approximately 11.7%, indicating that the earnings report may have alleviated some near-term concerns held by the market.

Looking Ahead: Analyst Estimates for Future Quarters

With no specific financial outlook provided by the company in the available press release, investor attention will likely turn to existing analyst projections for future performance. The estimates for the next quarter and the full year set a high bar for SERA Prognostics to demonstrate commercial traction and revenue growth.

Analyst Estimates for Q4 2025:

• Estimated Sales: $107,100
• Estimated EPS (Non-GAAP): -$0.21

Analyst Estimates for Full-Year 2025:

• Estimated Sales: $244,800
• Estimated EPS (Non-GAAP): -$0.78

Achieving these sales targets will be critical for the company to validate its commercial strategy and build investor confidence beyond a single quarter's earnings-per-share surprise.

Summary

SERA Prognostics' Q3 2025 earnings report presented a mixed financial picture. The company managed to post a smaller-than-expected loss per share, which the market viewed favorably, leading to a positive after-hours stock move. However, this was counterbalanced by revenue that came in dramatically below analyst consensus. The absence of forward-looking guidance from the company places greater emphasis on its ability to meet the substantial sales growth implied by analyst estimates for the upcoming fourth quarter and full year. The core narrative from the press release remains the company's commitment to its commercial rollout and its focus on addressing significant unmet needs in maternal health.

For a more detailed look at historical earnings and future analyst estimates, you can review the data here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. All investment and trading decisions involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.