NiSource Posts Solid 2025 Results, Reaffirms Growth Trajectory Amid Data Center Push
NISOURCE INC (NYSE:NI) reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, delivering earnings that largely met expectations while providing a reaffirmed long-term growth outlook centered on significant infrastructure investments, including a major data center project.
Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates
For the final quarter of 2025, the utility holding company reported non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.51. This figure came in slightly below the analyst consensus estimate of $0.5166. On the top line, the company reported revenue of $1.89 billion for Q4 2025, which notably exceeded the analyst estimate of $1.57 billion.
The full-year 2025 results showed continued growth:
- GAAP EPS: $1.95, up from $1.62 in 2024.
- Non-GAAP Adjusted EPS: $1.90, up from $1.75 in 2024.
Market Reaction and Price Action
The market's initial reaction to the report appears muted with a slight negative bias. In pre-market trading, the stock was indicated down approximately 1.1%. This minor pullback suggests investors may be digesting the slight EPS miss for the quarter against the backdrop of the company's long-term plans. Over recent periods, the stock has shown modest positive momentum, with gains of about 5.5% over the past month.
Key Takeaways from the Press Release
The earnings announcement was heavily focused on NiSource's future capital investment strategy and growth guidance rather than just the quarterly figures.
- Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance: The company reaffirmed its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance range of $2.02 to $2.07.
- Massive Capital Investment Plan: NiSource unveiled a consolidated capital plan of approximately $28 billion from 2026 through 2030. This plan is aimed at utility system modernization and includes nearly $7 billion dedicated to strategic data center infrastructure investments.
- Long-Term Growth Targets: These investments are expected to support an anticipated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%-9% for non-GAAP adjusted EPS and consolidated rate base growth of 9%-11% from 2026 through 2033.
- Data Center Deal Highlighted: CEO Lloyd Yates specifically pointed to the "landmark data center agreement with Amazon" as a key achievement of the year, representing a transformative project for the company.
- New Reporting Metrics: Commencing in 2026, NiSource will begin reporting "base plan adjusted EPS" (excluding data center activities) and "consolidated adjusted EPS" (including them). Management stated this change is to provide greater transparency into the distinct growth profiles of its traditional utility business and its new data center operations.
Outlook Versus Analyst Estimates
The company's provided 2026 EPS guidance range of $2.02-$2.07 offers a clear benchmark for investors. Analyst estimates for NiSource's full-year 2026 revenue currently stand at $6.67 billion, with EPS estimates clustering around the company's guided range. For the upcoming first quarter of 2026, analysts are estimating revenue of $2.21 billion and EPS of $1.08. NiSource's reaffirmed guidance and detailed capital plan provide a tangible roadmap that aligns with, and seeks to justify, these forward-looking analyst expectations.
Conclusion
NiSource's fourth-quarter earnings presented a mixed picture of a slight bottom-line miss against robust revenue outperformance. However, the core of the report was forward-looking, emphasizing a massive, multi-year capital expenditure program designed to fuel growth. The market's tepid initial reaction may reflect a "wait-and-see" approach as the company embarks on this significant investment phase, particularly in the capital-intensive data center sector. The reaffirmed 2026 guidance provides near-term certainty, while the long-term CAGR targets set ambitious goals for shareholder returns driven by infrastructure modernization and a strategic pivot to powering large-scale digital infrastructure.
For a detailed look at historical earnings, future estimates, and analyst projections for NiSource, you can review the data here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial analysis, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
