Monday's session on Wall Street was the financial equivalent of a held breath. The S&P 500 ticked up just 0.1% to close at a new all-time record, but with five of the Magnificent 7 due to report earnings this week, three central banks meeting, and oil pushing past $108 on stalled Iran talks, that record felt more like a pause than a celebration.
The Rundown
- U.S. equity markets close flat to marginally positive, with the S&P 500 setting a new all-time high
- Five of the Magnificent 7 report quarterly results this week, representing roughly $16 trillion in market cap
- The Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan all hold rate meetings this week; no policy changes are expected
- Rising oil prices driven by stalled Iran nuclear negotiations add a layer of geopolitical risk to an already loaded week
Calm on the Surface
The Nasdaq (COMPQ | ▲0.20%) closed up 0.2%, the Dow Jones (DJI | ▼0.13%) slipped marginally, and the S&P 500 scraped out a 0.1% gain to set a new closing record. Trading volumes were thin and there was little conviction in either direction. That's not a surprise.
Investors were positioning, not committing. JPMorgan analyst Fabio Bossa captured the mood well: "Financial markets remain choppy but resilient. Our view remains to hold on to the current winners rather than buy the laggards, since some assets now face a structural handicap from rising energy prices."
That energy point matters more than it might seem. U.S. Treasuries edged higher in yield, and the EUR/USD settled at 1.1721. Low-drama numbers that suggest the market is holding its breath, waiting.
Five Giants, One Week
AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN | ▼1.09%), META PLATFORMS INC-CLASS A (META | ▲0.53%), ALPHABET INC-CL A (GOOGL | ▲1.72%), MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT | ▲0.05%) and APPLE INC (AAPL | ▼1.27%) all report this week. Together they represent roughly $16 trillion in market cap.
Markets near all-time highs leave little room for disappointment. What investors want to know is whether the massive AI capital expenditure these companies have committed - Apple aside, which has been far more cautious - is starting to translate into real earnings or efficiency gains. So far, it's mostly been spending. Patience has a shelf life.
Chips: Two New Records and a Couple of Reality Checks
The cleanest winners Monday were in memory chips.
SANDISK CORP (SNDK | ▲8.11%) surged 8% to a new all-time record at $1,070.20. MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU | ▲5.60%) followed with a 5.6% gain to $524.56, also a record. Both received buy initiations from Melius Research, with two-year price targets of $1,350 and $700 respectively.
The analyst thesis: AI infrastructure spending is driving a structural supercycle in memory demand that runs through the end of this decade. Year-to-date, Sandisk is up 285%. Micron has gained 75%. At this point, calling these momentum plays misses the point, they're direct beneficiaries of a hyperscaler capex wave that shows no signs of slowing.
NVIDIA CORP (NVDA | ▲4.00%) also hit a new all-time record on Monday, extending its remarkable run.
Not every chip name participated. MARVELL TECHNOLOGY INC (MRVL | ▼3.71%) and ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES (AMD | ▼3.79%) each dropped around 4%, profit-taking after solid recent gains.
Domino's Delivers Less Than Expected
The session's biggest loser was DOMINO'S PIZZA INC (DPZ | ▼8.84%) ), off nearly 9% after comparable-store sales grew just 0.9% in the quarter, well below the 2.5% Wall Street had penciled in. CEO Russell Weiner blamed aggressive promotional pricing from competitors, arguing that rivals can't sustain those deals at the volumes needed to make them profitable.
That may well be true. But during the same earnings call, Weiner acknowledged it will be "difficult" to hit the company's own full-year comparable sales target of 3%. When management starts walking back its own guidance in public, the market doesn't wait around.
Microsoft and OpenAI: The Exclusivity Is Gone
This story deserves more attention than it received on Monday. MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT | ▲0.05%) and OpenAI have officially ended their exclusive partnership. Microsoft retains access to OpenAI's models and products through 2032, but from here on it's a non-exclusive arrangement, meaning OpenAI can now partner with Google, Amazon or anyone else.
For Microsoft, this removes a meaningful competitive advantage in enterprise AI. For OpenAI, it opens distribution channels that were previously off-limits. Whether the near-term impact shows up in the numbers is debatable. The direction of travel is not: the window for one-company dominance in AI infrastructure has already closed.
Verizon, X-Energy, and an Afterhours Beat from Nucor
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC (VZ | ▲1.55%) added 1.6% on strong Q1 results, raising full-year guidance and reporting better-than-expected subscriber growth. Q1 is traditionally the weakest quarter for additions in telecom, so the numbers stood out. A defensive name with a growing dividend base, quietly executing, worth keeping on the radar.
X-energy (XE | ▲23.00%), the small modular nuclear reactor developer backed by AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN | ▼1.09%), gained 23% Monday following a 27% jump at its IPO on Friday. It's early days, but the intersection of nuclear energy and AI power demand is drawing serious attention from both corporates and policymakers. One to watch.
After the closing bell, NUCOR CORP (NUE | ▲0.33%) dropped a standout first-quarter report. Revenue hit $9.5 billion, well above the $8.88 billion consensus. Net income came in at $743 million, or $3.23 per diluted share, compared to $156 million, or $0.67 per share, in Q1 2025. Nearly a five-fold increase in profit year-over-year, across all three operating segments.
CEO Leon Topalian pointed to strong end-market demand and credited U.S. trade policy for limiting unfair steel imports. Guidance for Q2 is positive across the board. Nucor also announced its 212th consecutive quarterly dividend of $0.56 per share, payable May 11. The stock rose 5.5% in afterhours trading.
Conclusion
The S&P 500's record close is Monday's headline. By Friday, it'll be a footnote. This week is about whether Big Tech can start justifying its AI spend in actual earnings, what the Fed signals on the rate path, and how far oil can run if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. Monday set the table. The week does the eating.
ChartMill Market Desk - Kristoff
This daily update is prepared by ChartMill for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own due diligence before making investment decisions.