Marqeta Inc-A (NASDAQ:MQ), a provider of modern card-issuing and payment processing technology, reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 that showcased robust top-line growth but a mixed picture on profitability, leading to a negative after-hours market reaction.
Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates
The company’s fourth-quarter performance narrowly surpassed analyst expectations on revenue but delivered a bottom-line result that, while improved, highlighted ongoing challenges.
- Revenue: Q4 net revenue reached $172.1 million, a 27% increase year-over-year. This figure slightly exceeded the consensus analyst estimate of approximately $171.96 million.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): The company reported a GAAP net loss of $1.4 million, or $0.00 per share. This compares to a Non-GAAP EPS estimate of $0.0024. While the reported $0.00 per share result is technically above the estimate, it reflects a continuation of minimal profitability on a GAAP basis.
- Market Reaction: Following the earnings release, Marqeta’s stock fell approximately 4.8% in after-hours trading. This suggests investor focus may have shifted from the revenue beat to the company’s forward guidance and the nuances within its profitability metrics.
Key Financial and Operational Highlights
The earnings report underscored significant volume growth and improving operational efficiency, even as GAAP profitability remains elusive.
- Total Processing Volume (TPV) surged 36% year-over-year to $109 billion for the quarter, demonstrating strong platform adoption and customer usage.
- Gross Profit grew 22% to $120 million, though gross margin contracted slightly to 70% from 72% in the prior-year period, which the company attributed to a revised accounting policy.
- Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure of operational profitability, showed marked improvement. It reached $31 million in Q4, representing an 18% margin, up significantly from $13 million and a 9% margin a year ago.
- For the full year 2025, Marqeta processed $383 billion in TPV (up 31%) and generated $625 million in net revenue (up 23%). Full-year Adjusted EBITDA was $110 million, a substantial increase from $29 million in 2024.
Forward Guidance and Analyst Expectations
Management provided financial guidance for 2026 that appears to set a more conservative growth trajectory for the top line while forecasting continued expansion in profitability.
The company’s outlook for the first quarter and full year 2026 is as follows:
- Q1 2026 Guidance: Net revenue growth of 17-19% and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 45-50%.
- Full Year 2026 Guidance: Net revenue growth of 12-14% and Adjusted EBITDA growth in the "mid-20s" percentage range.
This guidance presents a mixed picture when held against existing analyst expectations. The company’s Q1 revenue growth target aligns closely with current analyst models, which anticipated a slight year-over-year decline. However, the full-year revenue growth forecast of 12-14% is notably below the implied growth rate from the analyst sales estimate of $752.4 million for 2026, which would represent approximately 20% growth over 2025's results. This guidance recalibration likely contributed to the negative market sentiment post-earnings.
Business Momentum and Customer Expansion
Beyond the financials, Marqeta highlighted several business developments indicating platform expansion and deepening customer relationships:
- The launch of a new use case with long-standing customer Uber in the UK, providing drivers with instant earnings access and financial tools.
- Four Technologies, a Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) provider, selected Marqeta’s platform, citing its technological capabilities.
- Continued enhancement of value-added services, including onboarding the first customer to an AI-powered version of its Real-Time Decisioning product for fraud risk evaluation.
Conclusion
Marqeta’s fourth-quarter results confirm its position as a high-growth platform in the payment processing sector, with TPV and revenue increases well above 20%. The significant year-over-year improvement in Adjusted EBITDA margin points to increasing operational scale and efficiency. However, the market’s negative reaction underscores investor sensitivity to forward guidance. The company’s projected revenue growth deceleration for 2026, coupled with a GAAP net loss in the quarter despite the revenue beat, appears to have tempered enthusiasm. The focus now shifts to Marqeta’s ability to balance this moderated growth outlook with the continued expansion of its profitability as it moves through the coming year.
For a detailed breakdown of future quarterly estimates and historical earnings performance, you can review Marqeta’s earnings and estimates data here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial analysis, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
