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ALGOMA STEEL GROUP INC (ASTL) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:ASTL - Nasdaq - CA0156581070 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

6.155  -0.61 (-9.08%)

Fundamental Rating

2

ASTL gets a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. Both the profitability and financial health of ASTL have multiple concerns. While showing a medium growth rate, ASTL is valued expensive at the moment.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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1

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

ASTL had negative earnings in the past year.
In the past year ASTL has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
In multiple years ASTL reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Of the past 5 years ASTL 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
ASTL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFASTL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

With a Return On Assets value of -9.83%, ASTL is not doing good in the industry: 71.43% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -21.52%, ASTL is doing worse than 72.73% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -9.83%
ROE -21.52%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)15.98%
ROA(5y)6.68%
ROE(3y)27.2%
ROE(5y)-4.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ASTL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICASTL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

ASTL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ASTL has declined.
ASTL does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin and Gross Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM N/A
OM growth 3Y49.72%
OM growth 5Y-11.88%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y25.82%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
ASTL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsASTL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 20 30

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

ASTL does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
ASTL has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, ASTL has a worse debt to assets ratio.
ASTL Yearly Shares OutstandingASTL Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M
ASTL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsASTL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

2.2 Solvency

ASTL has an Altman-Z score of 1.15. This is a bad value and indicates that ASTL is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
ASTL has a Altman-Z score of 1.15. This is in the lower half of the industry: ASTL underperforms 74.03% of its industry peers.
ASTL has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.42, ASTL is not doing good in the industry: 73.38% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.42
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.15
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.16%
ASTL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFASTL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B 1.5B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 3.31 indicates that ASTL has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of ASTL (3.31) is better than 70.13% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.66 indicates that ASTL should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ASTL (1.66) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.31
Quick Ratio 1.66
ASTL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesASTL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

ASTL shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -2216.65%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 22.22% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, ASTL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 0.62% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, ASTL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 0.71% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-2216.65%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y22.22%
EPS Q2Q%20.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.62%
Revenue growth 3Y15.92%
Revenue growth 5Y0.71%
Sales Q2Q%-4.08%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 15.54% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
ASTL is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.49% yearly.
EPS Next Y-591.78%
EPS Next 2Y-38.4%
EPS Next 3Y15.54%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-12.1%
Revenue Next 2Y3.4%
Revenue Next 3Y6.49%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
ASTL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesASTL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1B 2B 3B 4B
ASTL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesASTL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0 2 -2 4 6 8 10

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1

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for ASTL. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 53.75, ASTL can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ASTL is on the same level as its industry peers.
ASTL is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 37.36, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 53.75
ASTL Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsASTL Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 0 10 20 30 40 50

4.2 Price Multiples

Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA N/A
ASTL Per share dataASTL EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

A more expensive valuation may be justified as ASTL's earnings are expected to grow with 15.54% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-38.4%
EPS Next 3Y15.54%

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3

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.85%, ASTL has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
ASTL's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 2.66. ASTL pays more dividend than 91.56% of the companies in the same industry.
ASTL's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.34.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.85%

5.2 History

ASTL has been paying a dividend for less than 5 years, so it still needs to build a track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
ASTL Yearly Dividends per shareASTL Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.05 0.1 0.15

5.3 Sustainability

ASTL has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-7.17%
EPS Next 2Y-38.4%
EPS Next 3Y15.54%
ASTL Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendASTL Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

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ALGOMA STEEL GROUP INC

NASDAQ:ASTL (7/24/2025, 2:50:53 PM)

6.155

-0.61 (-9.08%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)06-19 2025-06-19/amc
Earnings (Next)07-29 2025-07-29/amc
Inst Owners72.51%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners4.79%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap645.84M
Analysts43.33
Price TargetN/A
Short Float %4.88%
Short Ratio4.33
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.85%
Yearly Dividend0.2
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-7.17%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date05-13 2025-05-13 (0.05)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-41.39%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.43%
Max EPS beat(2)-40.35%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)109.58%
Min EPS beat(4)-232.48%
Max EPS beat(4)753.6%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(2)-5.31%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.73%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.93%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.31%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.73%
Revenue beat(8)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(8)N/A
Revenue beat(12)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(12)N/A
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)N/A
PT rev (3m)N/A
EPS NQ rev (1m)-43%
EPS NQ rev (3m)11.73%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-58.98%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.41%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-7.88%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 53.75
P/S 0.38
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF N/A
P/B 0.62
P/tB 0.62
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)-1.96
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.11
Fwd EY1.86%
FCF(TTM)-2.83
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-0.09
OCFYN/A
SpS16.19
BVpS9.92
TBVpS9.91
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -9.83%
ROE -21.52%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM N/A
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)15.98%
ROA(5y)6.68%
ROE(3y)27.2%
ROE(5y)-4.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)28.88%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y49.72%
OM growth 5Y-11.88%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y25.82%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score1
Asset Turnover0.75
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.42
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr 278.81%
Cap/Sales 16.88%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 3.31
Quick Ratio 1.66
Altman-Z 1.15
F-Score1
WACC8.16%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)322.39%
Cap/Depr(5y)227.68%
Cap/Sales(3y)11.3%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-2216.65%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y22.22%
EPS Q2Q%20.51%
EPS Next Y-591.78%
EPS Next 2Y-38.4%
EPS Next 3Y15.54%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.62%
Revenue growth 3Y15.92%
Revenue growth 5Y0.71%
Sales Q2Q%-4.08%
Revenue Next Year-12.1%
Revenue Next 2Y3.4%
Revenue Next 3Y6.49%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-4335.79%
EBIT growth 3Y73.56%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.25%
EBIT Next Year-162.69%
EBIT Next 3Y44.84%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-30.81%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y56.49%
OCF growth 3Y231.43%
OCF growth 5Y1.35%