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ALGOMA STEEL GROUP INC (ASTL) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:ASTL - Nasdaq - CA0156581070 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

5.47  -0.12 (-2.15%)

After market: 5.47 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

3

We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to ASTL. ASTL was compared to 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. ASTL has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. ASTL is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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1

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year ASTL has reported negative net income.
ASTL had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: ASTL reported negative net income in multiple years.
Of the past 5 years ASTL 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
ASTL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFASTL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -9.83%, ASTL is doing worse than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Equity value of -21.52%, ASTL is not doing good in the industry: 71.43% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -9.83%
ROE -21.52%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)15.98%
ROA(5y)6.68%
ROE(3y)27.2%
ROE(5y)-4.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ASTL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICASTL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

ASTL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
ASTL's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ASTL does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin and Gross Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM N/A
OM growth 3Y49.72%
OM growth 5Y-11.88%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y25.82%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
ASTL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsASTL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 20 30

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

ASTL does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, ASTL has more shares outstanding
ASTL has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
ASTL Yearly Shares OutstandingASTL Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M
ASTL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsASTL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.09, we must say that ASTL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of ASTL (1.09) is worse than 71.43% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42 indicates that ASTL is not too dependend on debt financing.
ASTL has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (0.42) than 70.13% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.42
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.09
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.15%
ASTL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFASTL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B 1.5B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 3.31 indicates that ASTL has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
ASTL has a better Current ratio (3.31) than 70.78% of its industry peers.
ASTL has a Quick Ratio of 1.66. This is a normal value and indicates that ASTL is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.66, ASTL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.84% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.31
Quick Ratio 1.66
ASTL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesASTL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

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5

3. Growth

3.1 Past

ASTL shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -2216.65%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 22.22% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, ASTL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 0.62% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.71% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-2216.65%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y22.22%
EPS Q2Q%20.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.62%
Revenue growth 3Y15.92%
Revenue growth 5Y0.71%
Sales Q2Q%-4.08%

3.2 Future

ASTL is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 56.12% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.77% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-491.43%
EPS Next 2Y12.64%
EPS Next 3Y56.12%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-11.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.75%
Revenue Next 3Y5.77%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
ASTL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesASTL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1B 2B 3B 4B
ASTL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesASTL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0 2 4 6 8 10

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

ASTL reported negative earnings for the last year, which makes the Price/Earnings Ratio negative.
ASTL is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.67.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ASTL is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 62.34% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ASTL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 21.94.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 14.67
ASTL Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsASTL Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 0 10 20

4.2 Price Multiples

Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA N/A
ASTL Per share dataASTL EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

ASTL's earnings are expected to grow with 56.12% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y12.64%
EPS Next 3Y56.12%

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3

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

ASTL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.36%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
In the last 3 months the price of ASTL has falen by -27.74%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
ASTL's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.00. ASTL pays more dividend than 88.96% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, ASTL pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.36%

5.2 History

ASTL has been paying a dividend for less than 5 years, so it still needs to build a track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
ASTL Yearly Dividends per shareASTL Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.05 0.1 0.15

5.3 Sustainability

The earnings of ASTL are negative and hence is the payout ratio. ASTL will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
DP-7.17%
EPS Next 2Y12.64%
EPS Next 3Y56.12%
ASTL Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendASTL Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

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ALGOMA STEEL GROUP INC

NASDAQ:ASTL (5/21/2025, 8:00:00 PM)

After market: 5.47 0 (0%)

5.47

-0.12 (-2.15%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)04-29 2025-04-29/amc
Earnings (Next)06-20 2025-06-20/amc
Inst Owners77.1%
Inst Owner Change-4.86%
Ins Owners4.77%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap571.18M
Analysts0
Price TargetN/A
Short Float %4.66%
Short Ratio3.18
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.36%
Yearly Dividend0.19
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-7.17%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date05-13 2025-05-13 (0.05)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-46.12%
Min EPS beat(2)-49.81%
Max EPS beat(2)-42.43%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)107.22%
Min EPS beat(4)-232.48%
Max EPS beat(4)753.6%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.42%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.88%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.73%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.54%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.88%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.73%
Revenue beat(8)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(8)N/A
Revenue beat(12)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(12)N/A
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)N/A
PT rev (3m)N/A
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)-26.54%
EPS NY rev (3m)32.33%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.85%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-7.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.38%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 14.67
P/S 0.35
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF N/A
P/B 0.56
P/tB 0.56
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)-1.91
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.37
Fwd EY6.82%
FCF(TTM)-2.77
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-0.09
OCFYN/A
SpS15.84
BVpS9.7
TBVpS9.7
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -9.83%
ROE -21.52%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM N/A
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)15.98%
ROA(5y)6.68%
ROE(3y)27.2%
ROE(5y)-4.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)28.88%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y49.72%
OM growth 5Y-11.88%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y25.82%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score1
Asset Turnover0.75
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.42
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr 278.81%
Cap/Sales 16.88%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 3.31
Quick Ratio 1.66
Altman-Z 1.09
F-Score1
WACC8.15%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)322.39%
Cap/Depr(5y)227.68%
Cap/Sales(3y)11.3%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-2216.65%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y22.22%
EPS Q2Q%20.51%
EPS Next Y-491.43%
EPS Next 2Y12.64%
EPS Next 3Y56.12%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.62%
Revenue growth 3Y15.92%
Revenue growth 5Y0.71%
Sales Q2Q%-4.08%
Revenue Next Year-11.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.75%
Revenue Next 3Y5.77%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-4335.79%
EBIT growth 3Y73.56%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.25%
EBIT Next Year-78.5%
EBIT Next 3Y44.84%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-30.81%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y56.49%
OCF growth 3Y231.43%
OCF growth 5Y1.35%