Ardagh Group SA (ARD) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ARD

Current stock price

24.75 USD
+0.63 (+2.61%)
At close:
24.72 USD
-0.03 (-0.12%)
After Hours:

This ARD fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

0

1. ARD Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ARD was profitable.

1.2 Ratios

Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.05%
ROE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)N/A
ROA(5y)N/A
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A

1.3 Margins

Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.03%
PM (TTM) -0.08%
GM N/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A

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3

2. ARD Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • ARD has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.62, we must say that ARD is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • ARD has a Debt/Equity ratio of -34.80. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity -34.8
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.62
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A

2.3 Liquidity

  • ARD has a Current Ratio of 2.77. This indicates that ARD is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • ARD has a Quick Ratio of 2.30. This indicates that ARD is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.77
Quick Ratio 2.3

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4

3. ARD Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ARD shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -5.39%.
  • Measured over the past years, ARD shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -6.97% on average per year.
  • ARD shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 9.39%.
  • The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.05% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-5.39%
EPS 3Y-6.97%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.62%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-7.83%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.05%
Sales Q2Q%16.69%

3.2 Future

  • ARD is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.94% yearly.
  • ARD is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 8.07% yearly.
EPS Next Y9.94%
EPS Next 2Y14.94%
EPS Next 3Y16.76%
EPS Next 5Y17.94%
Revenue Next Year10.92%
Revenue Next 2Y8.75%
Revenue Next 3Y8.72%
Revenue Next 5Y8.07%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
ARD Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesARD Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B
ARD Yearly EPS VS EstimatesARD Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1 2 3

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2

4. ARD Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 15.66, the valuation of ARD can be described as correct.
  • ARD is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.21, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.01, ARD is valued correctly.
  • ARD's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.10.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.66
Fwd PE 13.01
ARD Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsARD Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 5.25
ARD Per share dataARD EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 100 200 300

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • ARD's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as ARD's earnings are expected to grow with 16.76% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.58
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y14.94%
EPS Next 3Y16.76%

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3

5. ARD Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • ARD has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.42%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • ARD's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.42%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of ARD grows each year by 12.62%, which is quite nice.
  • ARD has paid a dividend for less than 5 years, so there is no long track record yet.
Dividend Growth(5Y)12.62%
Div Incr YearsN/A
Div Non Decr YearsN/A
ARD Yearly Dividends per shareARD Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2017 2020 2021 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • The earnings of ARD are negative and hence is the payout ratio. ARD will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
  • The dividend of ARD is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP-2350%
EPS Next 2Y14.94%
EPS Next 3Y16.76%

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ARD Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

Ardagh Group SA

NYSE:ARD (10/5/2021, 8:42:00 PM)

After market: 24.72 -0.03 (-0.12%)

24.75

+0.63 (+2.61%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)N/A
Earnings (Next)02-18
Inst Owners0.01%
Inst Owner Change-5.1%
Ins OwnersN/A
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap461.83M
Revenue(TTM)7.15B
Net Income(TTM)-6.00M
Analysts84
Price Target30.45 (23.03%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.42%
Yearly Dividend0.6
Dividend Growth(5Y)12.62%
DP-2350%
Div Incr YearsN/A
Div Non Decr YearsN/A
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)N/A
Avg EPS beat(2)N/A
Min EPS beat(2)N/A
Max EPS beat(2)N/A
EPS beat(4)N/A
Avg EPS beat(4)N/A
Min EPS beat(4)N/A
Max EPS beat(4)N/A
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(2)N/A
Min Revenue beat(2)N/A
Max Revenue beat(2)N/A
Revenue beat(4)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(4)N/A
Min Revenue beat(4)N/A
Max Revenue beat(4)N/A
Revenue beat(8)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(8)N/A
Revenue beat(12)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(12)N/A
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)N/A
PT rev (3m)N/A
EPS NQ rev (1m)N/A
EPS NQ rev (3m)N/A
EPS NY rev (1m)N/A
EPS NY rev (3m)N/A
Revenue NQ rev (1m)N/A
Revenue NQ rev (3m)N/A
Revenue NY rev (1m)N/A
Revenue NY rev (3m)N/A
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.66
Fwd PE 13.01
P/S 0.06
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF N/A
P/B N/A
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 5.25
EPS(TTM)1.58
EY6.38%
EPS(NY)1.9
Fwd EY7.69%
FCF(TTM)N/A
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)N/A
OCFYN/A
SpS383.23
BVpS-14.15
TBVpSN/A
PEG (NY)1.58
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.05%
ROE N/A
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM 6.03%
PM (TTM) -0.08%
GM N/A
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)N/A
ROA(5y)N/A
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y0%
ROICexgc growth 5Y0%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.57
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity -34.8
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 2.77
Quick Ratio 2.3
Altman-Z 0.62
F-Score3
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-5.39%
EPS 3Y-6.97%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.62%
EPS Next Y9.94%
EPS Next 2Y14.94%
EPS Next 3Y16.76%
EPS Next 5Y17.94%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-7.83%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.05%
Sales Q2Q%16.69%
Revenue Next Year10.92%
Revenue Next 2Y8.75%
Revenue Next 3Y8.72%
Revenue Next 5Y8.07%
EBIT growth 1YN/A
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1YN/A
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1YN/A
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A

Ardagh Group SA / ARD Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for ARD stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ARD.


Can you provide the valuation status for Ardagh Group SA?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to Ardagh Group SA (ARD). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for Ardagh Group SA?

Ardagh Group SA (ARD) has a profitability rating of 1 / 10.


What is the financial health of Ardagh Group SA (ARD) stock?

The financial health rating of Ardagh Group SA (ARD) is 6 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for Ardagh Group SA (ARD) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of Ardagh Group SA (ARD) is expected to grow by 9.94% in the next year.