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ARLINGTON ASSET INVEST - AAIC 6 3/4 03/15/25 (AIC) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AIC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0413565021 - Currency: USD

24.3301  +0.01 (+0.04%)

After market: 24.29 -0.04 (-0.16%)

Fundamental Rating

2

Taking everything into account, AIC scores 2 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AIC was compared to 65 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AIC have multiple concerns. AIC is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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2

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year AIC was profitable.
In the past year AIC has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AIC reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Of the past 5 years AIC 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
AIC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAIC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 50M -50M 100M

1.2 Ratios

AIC's Return On Assets of -0.27% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AIC is outperformed by 68.25% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of -1.08%, AIC is not doing good in the industry: 65.08% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AIC's Return On Invested Capital of 0.19% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AIC is outperformed by 65.08% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.27%
ROE -1.08%
ROIC 0.19%
ROA(3y)-2.37%
ROA(5y)-1.82%
ROE(3y)-11.03%
ROE(5y)-12.68%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AIC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAIC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -10 -20 -30

1.3 Margins

In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AIC has declined.
AIC has a Operating Margin of 4.02%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AIC underperforms 65.08% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AIC has declined.
AIC has a Gross Margin (36.78%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AIC's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.02%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 36.78%
OM growth 3Y18.88%
OM growth 5Y-16.44%
PM growth 3Y-17.2%
PM growth 5Y-18.06%
GM growth 3Y36.91%
GM growth 5Y-0.28%
AIC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAIC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -500 -1K

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1

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The number of shares outstanding for AIC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
AIC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
AIC Yearly Shares OutstandingAIC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10M 20M 30M
AIC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAIC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of -2.77, we must say that AIC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AIC has a worse Altman-Z score (-2.77) than 96.83% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.01 is on the high side and indicates that AIC has dependencies on debt financing.
AIC's Debt to Equity ratio of 3.01 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AIC outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.01
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z -2.77
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
AIC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAIC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 100M 200M 300M 400M

2.3 Liquidity

AIC has a Current Ratio of 0.36. This is a bad value and indicates that AIC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AIC (0.36) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AIC has a Quick Ratio of 0.36. This is a bad value and indicates that AIC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.36, AIC is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.56% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.36
Quick Ratio 0.36
AIC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAIC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1B 2B 3B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 17.39% over the past year.
AIC shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -33.34% yearly.
The Revenue has grown by 17.04% in the past year. This is quite good.
The Revenue for AIC have been decreasing by -16.37% on average. This is quite bad
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.39%
EPS 3Y-30.92%
EPS 5Y-33.34%
EPS Q2Q%-36.36%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)17.04%
Revenue growth 3Y-25.55%
Revenue growth 5Y-16.37%
Sales Q2Q%-64.33%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.66% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.80% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-0.01%
EPS Next 2Y-4.66%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-6.88%
Revenue Next 2Y6.8%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
AIC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAIC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 50M 100M
AIC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAIC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1 2 3 4 5

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0

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

A Price/Earnings ratio of 90.11 indicates a quite expensive valuation of AIC.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AIC is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 76.19% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AIC to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.34), we can say AIC is valued expensively.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 89.22, the valuation of AIC can be described as expensive.
93.65% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AIC, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.19. AIC is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 90.11
Fwd PE 89.22
AIC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAIC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA N/A
AIC Per share dataAIC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

AIC's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.66% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-4.66%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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3

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AIC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.94%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 12.22, AIC's dividend is way lower than its industry peers. On top of this 93.65% of the companies listed in the same industry pay a better dividend than AIC!
AIC's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.40.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.94%

5.2 History

The dividend of AIC decreases each year by -47.16%.
AIC has paid a dividend for less than 5 years, so there is no long track record yet.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-47.16%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
AIC Yearly Dividends per shareAIC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2021 2022 2023 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

The earnings of AIC are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AIC will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
The Dividend Rate of AIC has been decling, while earnings will also be declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP-86.96%
EPS Next 2Y-4.66%
EPS Next 3YN/A
AIC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAIC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 50M -50M 100M

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ARLINGTON ASSET INVEST - AAIC 6 3/4 03/15/25

NYSE:AIC (1/5/2024, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 24.29 -0.04 (-0.16%)

24.3301

+0.01 (+0.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)11-13 2023-11-13/bmo
Earnings (Next)03-29 2024-03-29/amc
Inst OwnersN/A
Inst Owner ChangeN/A
Ins OwnersN/A
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap689.03M
Analysts74.29
Price Target29.19 (19.97%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.94%
Yearly Dividend0.09
Dividend Growth(5Y)-47.16%
DP-86.96%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)0.21%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.59%
Max EPS beat(2)8.01%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-4.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-33.99%
Max EPS beat(4)17.25%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)11.35%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)23.07%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)21.95%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)116.56%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.22%
Max Revenue beat(2)237.34%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)83.96%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.22%
Max Revenue beat(4)237.34%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)87.66%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)82.44%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)40.54%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-10.81%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.98%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.98%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.98%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.98%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.98%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.98%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 90.11
Fwd PE 89.22
P/S 13.2
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF N/A
P/B 3.23
P/tB 3.23
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)0.27
EY1.11%
EPS(NY)0.27
Fwd EY1.12%
FCF(TTM)-0.43
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-0.43
OCFYN/A
SpS1.84
BVpS7.52
TBVpS7.52
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.27%
ROE -1.08%
ROCE 0.67%
ROIC 0.19%
ROICexc 0.19%
ROICexgc 0.2%
OM 4.02%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 36.78%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)-2.37%
ROA(5y)-1.82%
ROE(3y)-11.03%
ROE(5y)-12.68%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y41.72%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.71%
ROICexc growth 3Y41.32%
ROICexc growth 5Y-6.79%
OM growth 3Y18.88%
OM growth 5Y-16.44%
PM growth 3Y-17.2%
PM growth 5Y-18.06%
GM growth 3Y36.91%
GM growth 5Y-0.28%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.06
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.01
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage 0.07
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.36
Quick Ratio 0.36
Altman-Z -2.77
F-Score4
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.39%
EPS 3Y-30.92%
EPS 5Y-33.34%
EPS Q2Q%-36.36%
EPS Next Y-0.01%
EPS Next 2Y-4.66%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)17.04%
Revenue growth 3Y-25.55%
Revenue growth 5Y-16.37%
Sales Q2Q%-64.33%
Revenue Next Year-6.88%
Revenue Next 2Y6.8%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-78.57%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-30.12%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-258.44%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-258.44%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A