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AES CORP/THE - AES 6 7/8 02/15/24 (AESC) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA - NYSE:AESC - US00130H2040

62.61 USD
+0.66 (+1.07%)
Last: 2/14/2024, 8:25:21 PM
Fundamental Rating

2

We assign a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10 to AESC. AESC was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. AESC has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. While showing a medium growth rate, AESC is valued expensive at the moment.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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3

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year AESC was profitable.
In the past year AESC had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AESC reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AESC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
AESC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAESC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

AESC has a Return On Assets of -1.30%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AESC underperforms 76.19% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -20.15%, AESC is doing worse than 80.95% of the companies in the same industry.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 5.43%, AESC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.19% of the companies in the same industry.
AESC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.99%. This is above the industry average of 4.08%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -1.3%
ROE -20.15%
ROIC 5.43%
ROA(3y)-0.84%
ROA(5y)0.41%
ROE(3y)-11.76%
ROE(5y)2.47%
ROIC(3y)6.99%
ROIC(5y)6.74%
AESC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAESC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

AESC has a Operating Margin of 18.49%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AESC outperforms 47.62% of its industry peers.
AESC's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AESC has a Gross Margin of 20.16%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AESC underperforms 76.19% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AESC has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 18.49%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 20.16%
OM growth 3Y-4.04%
OM growth 5Y-3.04%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.32%
GM growth 5Y-2.9%
AESC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAESC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 10 -10 20

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0

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

AESC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AESC has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AESC is higher compared to a year ago.
AESC Yearly Shares OutstandingAESC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 200M 400M 600M
AESC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAESC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10B 20B 30B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.02, we must say that AESC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.02, AESC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.19% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 8.50 is on the high side and indicates that AESC has dependencies on debt financing.
AESC has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (8.50) than 95.24% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 8.5
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.02
ROIC/WACC0.76
WACC7.13%
AESC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAESC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

2.3 Liquidity

AESC has a Current Ratio of 0.83. This is a bad value and indicates that AESC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AESC's Current ratio of 0.83 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AESC is outperformed by 80.95% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.74 indicates that AESC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AESC (0.74) is worse than 85.71% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.83
Quick Ratio 0.74
AESC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAESC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2B 4B 6B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for AESC have decreased by -6.75% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 8.91% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, AESC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 3.51% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.68% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.75%
EPS 3Y6.82%
EPS 5Y8.91%
EPS Q2Q%-4.76%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.51%
Revenue growth 3Y7.38%
Revenue growth 5Y3.68%
Sales Q2Q%-5.32%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 6.92% on average over the next years.
AESC is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.31% yearly.
EPS Next Y4.32%
EPS Next 2Y7.13%
EPS Next 3Y7.74%
EPS Next 5Y6.92%
Revenue Next Year4.09%
Revenue Next 2Y3.16%
Revenue Next 3Y3.17%
Revenue Next 5Y5.31%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
AESC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAESC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 5B 10B 15B
AESC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAESC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

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1

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

A Price/Earnings ratio of 41.19 indicates a quite expensive valuation of AESC.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AESC.
AESC is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.41, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 32.67 indicates a quite expensive valuation of AESC.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AESC indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AESC is cheaper than 61.90% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AESC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit more expensive than the S&P500 average which is at 22.87.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 41.19
Fwd PE 32.67
AESC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAESC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 50 100 150

4.2 Price Multiples

AESC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. AESC is more expensive than 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 19.28
AESC Per share dataAESC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 -5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates AESC does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
PEG (NY)9.54
PEG (5Y)4.62
EPS Next 2Y7.13%
EPS Next 3Y7.74%

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5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AESC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.31%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 4.77, AESC pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, AESC pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 4.31%

5.2 History

The dividend of AESC has a limited annual growth rate of 5.62%.
AESC has been paying a dividend for less than 5 years, so it still needs to build a track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.62%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years2
AESC Yearly Dividends per shareAESC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2021 2022 2023 2024 2 4 6

5.3 Sustainability

The earnings of AESC are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AESC will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
AESC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-78.39%
EPS Next 2Y7.13%
EPS Next 3Y7.74%
AESC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAESC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 1B -1B

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AES CORP/THE - AES 6 7/8 02/15/24

NYSE:AESC (2/14/2024, 8:25:21 PM)

62.61

+0.66 (+1.07%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)11-02 2023-11-02/amc
Earnings (Next)02-26 2024-02-26/amc
Inst OwnersN/A
Inst Owner ChangeN/A
Ins OwnersN/A
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap41.93B
Analysts77.78
Price Target88.34 (41.1%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 4.31%
Yearly Dividend0.63
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.62%
DP-78.39%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)2.74%
Min EPS beat(2)-4.4%
Max EPS beat(2)9.88%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)1.48%
Min EPS beat(4)-4.4%
Max EPS beat(4)9.88%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)1.05%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)2.47%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)2.33%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.63%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.72%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.54%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.75%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.72%
Max Revenue beat(4)12.94%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)7.43%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)7.79%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.05%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-0.19%
EPS NQ rev (1m)6.18%
EPS NQ rev (3m)14.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.37%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-4.43%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)3.23%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.6%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 41.19
Fwd PE 32.67
P/S 3.29
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 12.08
P/B 15.09
P/tB 330.12
EV/EBITDA 19.28
EPS(TTM)1.52
EY2.43%
EPS(NY)1.92
Fwd EY3.06%
FCF(TTM)-5.47
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)5.18
OCFY8.28%
SpS19.06
BVpS4.15
TBVpS0.19
PEG (NY)9.54
PEG (5Y)4.62
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -1.3%
ROE -20.15%
ROCE 6.87%
ROIC 5.43%
ROICexc 5.82%
ROICexgc 6.34%
OM 18.49%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 20.16%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)-0.84%
ROA(5y)0.41%
ROE(3y)-11.76%
ROE(5y)2.47%
ROIC(3y)6.99%
ROIC(5y)6.74%
ROICexc(3y)7.37%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)8.02%
ROICexgc(5y)7.65%
ROCE(3y)8.85%
ROCE(5y)8.53%
ROICexcg growth 3Y0.53%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y-0.1%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.37%
OM growth 3Y-4.04%
OM growth 5Y-3.04%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.32%
GM growth 5Y-2.9%
F-Score2
Asset Turnover0.3
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 8.5
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 6.85
Cap/Depr 655.19%
Cap/Sales 55.92%
Interest Coverage 2.34
Cash Conversion 100.64%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.83
Quick Ratio 0.74
Altman-Z 1.02
F-Score2
WACC7.13%
ROIC/WACC0.76
Cap/Depr(3y)270.16%
Cap/Depr(5y)250.42%
Cap/Sales(3y)24.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.62%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.75%
EPS 3Y6.82%
EPS 5Y8.91%
EPS Q2Q%-4.76%
EPS Next Y4.32%
EPS Next 2Y7.13%
EPS Next 3Y7.74%
EPS Next 5Y6.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.51%
Revenue growth 3Y7.38%
Revenue growth 5Y3.68%
Sales Q2Q%-5.32%
Revenue Next Year4.09%
Revenue Next 2Y3.16%
Revenue Next 3Y3.17%
Revenue Next 5Y5.31%
EBIT growth 1Y-12.17%
EBIT growth 3Y3.04%
EBIT growth 5Y0.53%
EBIT Next Year37.91%
EBIT Next 3Y17.17%
EBIT Next 5Y13.77%
FCF growth 1Y-5211.59%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y74.37%
OCF growth 3Y4.56%
OCF growth 5Y2.87%