NCR Voyix Corp (NYSE:VYX) reported fourth-quarter financial results that surpassed analyst expectations on key profitability metrics, though a significant shift in its business model clouds the year-ahead revenue picture. The market's initial reaction in pre-market trading was negative, with shares down approximately 4%.
Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates
The company's performance for the final quarter of 2025 showed strength in its underlying operations, particularly on the bottom line.
- Non-GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS): Reported at $0.31, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $0.2915.
- Revenue: Came in at $720 million, exceeding the estimated $697.0 million.
For the full year 2025, the company swung to a net income from continuing operations of $42 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $201 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the year grew 22% to $425 million.
Market Reaction and Outlook Concerns
Despite the earnings beat, shares traded lower pre-market. This reaction appears to be driven by the company's guidance for 2026, which involves a major transition in how it recognizes hardware revenue. Management is shifting to an Original Design Manufacturer (ODM) model for its hardware business, which will change revenue recognition from a gross to a net basis starting in the second quarter.
The company's 2026 revenue outlook of $2.21 billion to $2.325 billion represents a reported decline of 13% to 18% year-over-year, largely due to this accounting change. However, on a pro forma basis—adjusting to apply the new model to both years for comparison—the guidance implies revenue could range from a 2% decline to 3% growth.
This outlook is notably below the current analyst consensus estimate for 2026 sales of $2.246 billion. The guidance for other metrics was more positive:
- Adjusted EBITDA: Projected between $440 million and $455 million, representing 4% to 7% growth.
- Non-GAAP EPS: Forecast in a range of $0.93 to $0.96, implying 3% to 6% growth.
- Adjusted Free Cash Flow: Expected to surge 40% to 62% to a range of $190 million to $220 million.
Key Highlights from the Quarter
Beyond the financial figures, the earnings release highlighted NCR Voyix's ongoing strategic pivot toward a software and services-led platform business.
- Platform Growth: The company ended 2025 with 80,000 platform sites and over 8,500 payment sites, increases of 8% and 4% respectively from the prior year.
- Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR): Total ARR grew to $1.7 billion, with Software ARR increasing to $783 million.
- New Business: The quarter saw significant platform agreements signed with two new enterprise retailers, 7-Eleven Philippines and Colruyt Group in Europe.
- Capital Return: The company repurchased $78 million worth of its common and preferred stock in the fourth quarter.
- Product Launch: In January 2026, the company launched its largest portfolio of cloud-to-edge applications built on its Voyix Commerce Platform.
Conclusion
NCR Voyix delivered a solid finish to 2025, exceeding profit expectations and demonstrating progress in its transition to a recurring-revenue model. However, investor sentiment was tempered by a 2026 revenue outlook that, on the surface, indicates a significant decline. The core of this forecast is a major business model transition rather than an underlying collapse in demand. The company's focus is clearly on improving profitability and cash flow, with strong guidance for Adjusted EBITDA and free cash generation. The market's negative knee-jerk reaction reflects the complexity of the hardware transition and the below-consensus sales forecast, leaving investors to weigh the trade-off between lower reported revenue and higher quality earnings and cash flow.
For a detailed look at historical earnings and future analyst estimates for NCR Voyix, you can review the data here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Investing carries risks, including the potential loss of principal.
