FTAI Aviation Ltd (NASDAQ:FTAI) reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, delivering strong year-over-year profit growth but falling short of Wall Street's top and bottom-line expectations. The market's immediate reaction was sharply negative, with the stock declining approximately 9% in after-hours trading following the announcement.
Earnings and Revenue Versus Estimates
The company's quarterly performance presented a mixed picture when measured against analyst forecasts. While demonstrating significant operational growth, it did not meet the heightened expectations baked into its share price.
- Revenue: Total revenue for Q4 2025 reached $662.0 million, a substantial 32.7% increase from the $498.8 million reported in the same quarter last year. However, this figure fell short of the analyst consensus estimate of approximately $711.4 million.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): Diluted EPS came in at $1.08, a solid improvement from $0.84 in Q4 2024. Despite this growth, the result missed the average analyst estimate of $1.29 per share by approximately 16%.
The dual miss on both key financial metrics appears to be the primary driver behind the significant after-hours sell-off, as investors recalibrate their near-term expectations for the company's financial performance.
Key Highlights from the Earnings Release
Beyond the headline numbers, FTAI's earnings report contained several strong operational and strategic highlights that management emphasized as signs of fundamental strength.
- Full-Year Profit Surge: For the full year 2025, net income attributable to shareholders was $477.5 million, or $4.60 per diluted share, a dramatic turnaround from a loss of $32.1 million in 2024.
- Aerospace Products Momentum: The Aerospace Products segment was a standout performer, generating $671.3 million in Adjusted EBITDA for the full year. This represents a 76% annual increase versus 2024 and a 320% increase versus 2023, underscoring the segment's rapid scaling.
- Increased Dividend: Demonstrating confidence in its cash flow generation, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per ordinary share, a 14% increase from the previous $0.35 dividend. This marks the second consecutive quarterly raise.
- Raised 2026 Guidance: The company provided an updated business segment outlook for 2026, raising its forecast for Adjusted EBITDA to a range of $1.525 billion to $1.625 billion. This new range is comprised of $1.05 billion from Aerospace Products and $575 million from Aviation Leasing.
Forward Outlook and Analyst Expectations
The company's raised 2026 guidance offers a forward-looking counterpoint to the quarterly miss. Management's confidence appears rooted in the continued strength of the Aerospace Products business and key initiatives like the development of "FTAI Power" and the launch of a second strategic capital partnership (SCI II).
Comparing this outlook to existing analyst models provides context. The company's updated 2026 EBITDA guidance midpoint of $1.575 billion will be a key benchmark. Meanwhile, analysts have begun modeling for the coming year, with current consensus estimates for Q1 2026 revenue standing at approximately $773.5 million.
Market Reaction and Conclusion
The steep after-hours decline reflects a market that had priced in a beat or meet on quarterly estimates and was disappointed by the shortfall. While the long-term growth narrative around FTAI's proprietary aerospace products and leasing business remains intact—bolstered by the increased dividend and raised full-year guidance—the Q4 results serve as a reminder of the high expectations embedded in the stock's valuation.
Investors will likely focus on the company's ability to execute against its robust 2026 forecast and convert its strong Aerospace Products EBITDA growth into consistent earnings that meet or exceed street expectations in future quarters.
For a detailed look at FTAI Aviation's historical earnings, future estimates, and analyst projections, you can review the data here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
