Leslie Masonson @ BuyDontHold

Type: Long Term
Products: ETFs

Leslie N. Masonson, MBA, CCM, is President of Cash Management Resources, a financial consulting firm that he founded in 1987. Masonson’s 40-year working career has spanned financial advisory services, trading, investing, banking operations, management, teaching, and cash/treasury management consulting. He has written more than 50 articles - interviews with traders, and product and book reviews - for numerous financial publications, including Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Active Trader, and Futures Magazine.. He has lectured on investing on several cruise lines including Crystal, Celebrity, and Norwegian. In November 2003, he spoke at the Intershow Online Investor’s Expo, on “Successfully Trading Stocks for a Living.”

Why We Love BuyDontHold?

Not much time?
Not everyone has the time or energy to invest in a more active way in the markets. This easy to understand system is a great way to do this without having to worry about bear markets.

Not a risk taker
Leslie uses highly liquid ETFs to rotate his money into. You can do this too, without having to take huge risks in individual stock positions.

Buy Don't Hold - Leslie Masonson

On this page you can find the current condition of a stock market timing model as described in the book Buy—Don’t Hold: Investing with RTFs Using Relative Strength to Increase Returns with Less Risk by Leslie N. Masonson. The book presents a Dashboard which determines the state of the stock market based on relative strength and then invests in the best performing ETFs from a pre-selected universe, when the Dashboard provides a 'BUY' signal.

The book describes eight rules to determine the state of the market. Today and on his website Masonson has simplified the process and uses only four of the rules. We implemented very similar rules and added the 'stocks above SMA(50)' rule from the book which he currently does not use. Masonson also uses the NASDAQ Composite Index in rule #2, not the S&P 500 as we have done. He also uses a MACD confirmation signal in rule #8 which we have not done.


Rule Description Signal
1 % of stocks above their SMA 50. (chart) BUY
2 The S&P 500 Index and its 100 DMA. (chart) BUY
5 The MACD of the S&P500. (chart) BUY
8 The Nasdaq Summation Index and its EMA(5). (chart) SELL
6 AAII Bullish Inverstors Sentiment. (chart) SELL

 

Number of buy Signals: 3

The model is in BUY mode

Note:

  • Our implementation of the model uses the SPY ETF to check the MACD and the 100 DMA. Our SPY historical data goes back to 1993 while we have way less historical data for the Nasdaq Composite ETF(ONEQ)
  • You can manually check the MACD and 100SMA position of the Nasdaq Composite ETF here.

Quick SPY Backtest of the Signals

As we have the historical signals, we can easily do a quick test of just the market model signals.

Notes:

  • This test does not test the 'System' as described in the book.
  • The test does not select the strongest ETFs, it just enters and exits the SPY ETF with a full portfolio on signal changes.
  • The test does not use any stops, it only exits a position if the signal changes.
  • The test just verifies whether the Market Model is able to identify bear and bull periods in the market.
  • By default, the test goes short on a SELL signal. When 'don't short on SELL signal' is checked, the test will wait for the next buy signal.
  • By default, the test goes to cash on a change to a NEUTRAL signal. When 'stay in position on neutral' is checked, the test will wait for the next buy or sell signal to close the position.


StartDate: don't short on sell signal stay in position on neutral
DateActionResult
2010-01-05New Long @113.26
2010-01-19closed long @113.62 from 113.260.32
2010-01-20New Long @114.28
2010-01-21closed long @113.92 from 114.28-0.32
2010-01-27New Short @109.17
2010-01-28closed short @110.19 from 109.17-0.93
2010-01-29New Short @109.04
2010-02-03closed short @109.88 from 109.04-0.77
2010-02-04New Long @108.98
2010-02-05closed long @106.56 from 108.98-2.22
2010-02-17New Long @110.27
2010-03-29closed long @117.17 from 110.276.26
2010-03-30New Long @117.46
2010-04-21closed long @120.95 from 117.462.97
2010-04-22New Long @119.81
2010-05-07closed long @112.64 from 119.81-5.98
2010-05-11New Long @115.07
2010-05-18closed long @114.88 from 115.07-0.17
2010-05-25New Short @105.11
2010-06-04closed short @108.61 from 105.11-3.33
2010-06-04New Long @108.61
2010-06-08closed long @105.57 from 108.61-2.8
2010-06-08New Short @105.57
2010-06-11closed short @108.19 from 105.57-2.48
2010-06-14New Short @110.52
2010-06-15closed short @110.28 from 110.520.22
2010-06-29New Short @106.02
2010-07-09closed short @107.13 from 106.02-1.05
2010-07-16New Long @109.09
2010-08-12closed long @107.65 from 109.09-1.32
2010-08-27New Short @105.89
2010-09-03closed short @110.54 from 105.89-4.39
2010-09-03New Long @110.54
2010-09-24closed long @113.75 from 110.542.9
2010-10-05New Short @114.8
2010-10-06closed short @116.02 from 114.8-1.06
2010-10-21New Short @118.4
2010-11-05closed short @122.34 from 118.4-3.33
2010-11-05New Long @122.34
2010-11-16closed long @119.29 from 122.34-2.49
2010-11-23New Short @118.77
2010-12-06closed short @122.63 from 118.77-3.25
2010-12-06New Long @122.63
2010-12-31closed long @125.49 from 122.632.33
2011-01-06New Long @127.69
2011-01-10closed long @126.58 from 127.69-0.87
2011-01-14New Long @128.19
2011-01-21closed long @128.88 from 128.190.54
2011-01-27New Short @129.7
2011-01-28closed short @130.14 from 129.7-0.34
2011-01-31New Short @128.07
2011-02-04closed short @130.83 from 128.07-2.16
2011-02-08New Long @132.09
2011-02-10closed long @131.6 from 132.09-0.37
2011-02-16New Long @133.47
2011-02-23closed long @131.76 from 133.47-1.28
2011-02-28New Short @132.84
2011-03-24closed short @130.4 from 132.841.84
2011-03-28New Long @131.59
2011-04-14closed long @130.7 from 131.59-0.68
2011-04-25New Long @133.7
2011-05-09closed long @134.19 from 133.70.37
2011-05-24New Short @132.44
2011-06-13closed short @127.89 from 132.443.44
2011-06-14New Short @128.87
2011-06-16closed short @127.06 from 128.871.4
2011-06-22New Long @129.05
2011-07-19closed long @131.34 from 129.051.77
2011-07-20New Long @133.07
2011-08-08closed long @116.91 from 133.07-12.14
2011-09-01New Long @122.29
2011-09-12closed long @114.47 from 122.29-6.39
2011-09-19New Long @119.53
2011-09-23closed long @112.11 from 119.53-6.21
2011-10-06New Short @114.36
2011-10-10closed short @117.68 from 114.36-2.9
2011-10-10New Long @117.68
2011-11-10closed long @124.79 from 117.686.04
2011-11-18New Short @122.5
2011-11-29closed short @120.05 from 122.52
2011-12-01New Long @124.85
2011-12-20closed long @122.18 from 124.85-2.14
2011-12-21New Long @123.93
2012-02-01closed long @132.29 from 123.936.75
2012-02-02New Short @132.74
2012-02-06closed short @133.99 from 132.74-0.94
2012-02-16New Short @134.58
2012-02-28closed short @137.21 from 134.58-1.95
2012-03-15New Long @140.13
2012-03-23closed long @139.32 from 140.13-0.58
2012-03-27New Long @141.74
2012-03-29closed long @139.63 from 141.74-1.49
2012-04-10New Short @137.95
2012-04-19closed short @138.63 from 137.95-0.49
2012-04-27New Long @140.58
2012-05-07closed long @136.51 from 140.58-2.9
2012-05-10New Short @136.68
2012-05-31closed short @131.71 from 136.683.64
2012-06-01New Short @129.41
2012-06-08closed short @131.71 from 129.41-1.78
2012-06-08New Long @131.71
2012-06-13closed long @132.53 from 131.710.62
2012-06-14New Long @132.34
2012-07-13closed long @133.86 from 132.341.15
2012-07-16New Long @135.44
2012-07-25closed long @134.21 from 135.44-0.91
2012-07-27New Long @136.89
2012-11-08closed long @139.7 from 136.892.05
2012-11-14New Short @138.21
2012-11-19closed short @137.9 from 138.210.22
2012-11-23New Long @140.13
2013-02-05closed long @150.35 from 140.137.29
2013-02-25New Short @152.63
2013-02-26closed short @149.72 from 152.631.91
2013-03-06New Long @154.84
2013-03-12closed long @155.92 from 154.840.7
2013-03-20New Short @155.52
2013-04-11closed short @158.7 from 155.52-2.04
2013-04-15New Long @158
2013-04-16closed long @156.29 from 158-1.08
2013-04-19New Long @154.5
2013-05-28closed long @167.04 from 154.58.12
2013-06-17New Long @164.29
2013-06-18closed long @164.53 from 164.290.15
2013-06-25New Short @158.48
2013-06-26closed short @159.87 from 158.48-0.88
2013-07-08New Long @163.86
2013-08-09closed long @169.58 from 163.863.49
2013-08-28New Short @163.26
2013-08-30closed short @164.51 from 163.26-0.77
2013-09-03New Short @165.23
2013-09-04closed short @164.43 from 165.230.48
2013-09-09New Long @166.45
2013-09-27closed long @168.84 from 166.451.44
2013-10-01New Long @168.14
2013-10-09closed long @165.8 from 168.14-1.39
2013-10-09New Short @165.8
2013-10-11closed short @168.91 from 165.8-1.88
2013-10-15New Long @170.51
2013-11-08closed long @174.87 from 170.512.56
2013-11-15New Long @179.56
2013-11-21closed long @178.97 from 179.56-0.33
2013-11-25New Long @181.13
2013-12-03closed long @179.94 from 181.13-0.66
2013-12-05New Short @179.41
2013-12-24closed short @182.54 from 179.41-1.74
2014-01-07New Short @183.09
2014-01-13closed short @183.71 from 183.09-0.34
2014-02-04New Short @174.95
2014-02-07closed short @178.31 from 174.95-1.92
2014-02-12New Long @182.22
2014-03-10closed long @187.94 from 182.223.14
2014-03-14New Short @184.8
2014-04-01closed short @187.62 from 184.8-1.53
2014-04-03New Long @189.17
2014-04-07closed long @185.9 from 189.17-1.73
2014-04-09New Short @185.6
2014-04-11closed short @182.17 from 185.61.85
2014-04-14New Short @182.93
2014-04-22closed short @187.23 from 182.93-2.35
2014-05-14New Long @189.79
2014-05-19closed long @187.69 from 189.79-1.11
2014-05-22New Short @189.18
2014-05-23closed short @189.75 from 189.18-0.3
2014-06-17New Short @194.02
2014-06-19closed short @196.43 from 194.02-1.24
2014-06-24New Short @195.53
2014-06-25closed short @194.3 from 195.530.63
2014-07-07New Long @197.82
2014-07-09closed long @196.73 from 197.82-0.55
2014-08-08New Short @191.46
2014-08-15closed short @196.47 from 191.46-2.62
2014-08-26New Long @200.33
2014-09-10closed long @199.44 from 200.33-0.44
2014-10-02New Short @194.18
2014-10-06closed short @197.34 from 194.18-1.63
2014-10-07New Long @195.28
2014-10-08closed long @193.37 from 195.28-0.98
2014-10-13New Short @190.46
2014-10-23closed short @194.62 from 190.46-2.18
2014-10-27New Long @195.73
2014-10-28closed long @196.82 from 195.730.56
2014-10-29New Long @198.55
2014-12-02closed long @205.81 from 198.553.66
2014-12-10New Long @205.91
2014-12-17closed long @198.44 from 205.91-3.63
2014-12-18New Long @204.74
2015-01-07closed long @201.42 from 204.74-1.62
2015-01-08New Long @204.01
2015-01-15closed long @201.63 from 204.01-1.17
2015-01-16New Short @198.77
2015-01-20closed short @202.4 from 198.77-1.83
2015-01-20New Long @202.4
2015-01-29closed long @200.38 from 202.4-1
2015-01-30New Long @200.57
2015-02-02closed long @200.15 from 200.57-0.21
2015-02-03New Long @203
2015-03-10closed long @206.7 from 2031.82
2015-03-23New Long @210.42
2015-03-26closed long @204.96 from 210.42-2.59
2015-03-31New Long @207.26
2015-04-02closed long @205.62 from 207.26-0.79
2015-04-06New Long @205.37
2015-04-08closed long @207.55 from 205.371.06
2015-04-10New Long @209.2
2015-05-01closed long @209.4 from 209.20.1
2015-05-05New Long @211.03
2015-05-06closed long @209.56 from 211.03-0.7
2015-05-12New Long @209.61
2015-06-09closed long @208.45 from 209.61-0.55
2015-06-11New Long @211.48
2015-06-17closed long @210.59 from 211.48-0.42
2015-06-19New Long @211.46
2015-06-30closed long @207.26 from 211.46-1.99
2015-07-06New Short @205.77
2015-07-10closed short @207.29 from 205.77-0.74
2015-07-14New Long @209.72
2015-08-05closed long @210.45 from 209.720.35
2015-08-06New Long @210.29
2015-08-07closed long @208.16 from 210.29-1.01
2015-08-11New Long @208.97
2015-08-12closed long @207.11 from 208.97-0.89
2015-08-14New Long @208.43
2015-08-17closed long @208.71 from 208.430.13
2015-08-18New Long @210.26
2015-08-20closed long @206.51 from 210.26-1.78
2015-08-24New Short @187.49
2015-09-09closed short @199.32 from 187.49-6.31
2015-09-10New Short @194.56
2015-09-11closed short @195.38 from 194.56-0.42
2015-09-14New Long @196.95
2015-09-15closed long @196.61 from 196.95-0.17
2015-09-16New Long @198.82
2015-09-29closed long @188.27 from 198.82-5.31
2015-10-05New Long @196.46
2015-12-21closed long @201.41 from 196.462.52
2015-12-23New Long @204.69
2015-12-24closed long @205.72 from 204.690.5
2015-12-28New Long @204.86
2016-01-05closed long @201.4 from 204.86-1.69
2016-01-08New Short @195.19
2016-01-29closed short @190.02 from 195.192.65
2016-02-01New Long @192.53
2016-02-10closed long @186.41 from 192.53-3.18
2016-02-11New Short @182.34
2016-02-17closed short @191.16 from 182.34-4.84
2016-02-19New Long @191.17
2016-03-30closed long @206.3 from 191.177.91
2016-04-04New Long @206.83
2016-04-05closed long @204.67 from 206.83-1.04
2016-04-19New Long @209.74
2016-04-26closed long @209.04 from 209.74-0.33
2016-05-11New Short @207.91
2016-05-26closed short @209.44 from 207.91-0.74
2016-06-03New Long @210.25
2016-06-24closed long @203.63 from 210.25-3.15
2016-06-27New Short @201.59
2016-06-30closed short @207.21 from 201.59-2.79
2016-07-01New Long @209.36
2016-08-02closed long @216.65 from 209.363.48
2016-08-25New Long @217.4
2016-09-23closed long @216.72 from 217.4-0.31
2016-09-26New Long @215.02
2016-09-27closed long @214.05 from 215.02-0.45
2016-09-27New Short @214.05
2016-09-28closed short @215.83 from 214.05-0.83
2016-10-07New Long @216.1
2016-10-12closed long @213.59 from 216.1-1.16
2016-10-12New Short @213.59
2016-10-20closed short @213.87 from 213.59-0.13
2016-10-21New Short @212.96
2016-10-25closed short @214.68 from 212.96-0.81
2016-10-26New Short @213.21
2016-11-09closed short @212.37 from 213.210.39
2016-11-10New Long @217.3
2016-12-22closed long @225.6 from 217.33.82
2017-01-04New Long @225.62
2017-01-24closed long @226.4 from 225.620.35
2017-01-26New Long @229.4
2017-02-01closed long @228.26 from 229.4-0.5
2017-02-10New Long @231
2017-03-08closed long @237.34 from 2312.74
2017-03-14New Long @237.18
2017-04-11closed long @234.9 from 237.18-0.96
2017-04-13New Long @233.64
2017-05-19closed long @237.33 from 233.641.58
2017-05-25New Short @241.2
2017-05-26closed short @241.54 from 241.2-0.14
2017-05-26New Long @241.54
2017-06-16closed long @242.77 from 241.540.51
2017-06-22New Long @242.96
2017-08-04closed long @247.52 from 242.961.88
2017-08-29New Long @243.06
2017-10-26closed long @255.99 from 243.065.32
2017-11-07New Long @258.97
2017-11-10closed long @257.73 from 258.97-0.48
2017-11-22New Long @260
2017-12-07closed long @263.09 from 2601.19
2017-12-28New Short @267.89
2017-12-29closed short @268.53 from 267.89-0.24
2018-01-02New Short @267.84
2018-01-04closed short @271.2 from 267.84-1.25
2018-01-05New Long @272.51
2018-01-31closed long @282.73 from 272.513.75
2018-02-01New Short @281.07
2018-02-13closed short @263.97 from 281.076.08
2018-02-20New Long @272.03
2018-03-23closed long @264.17 from 272.03-2.89
2018-03-23New Short @264.17
2018-04-11closed short @263.47 from 264.170.26
2018-04-12New Long @265.26
2018-04-26closed long @264.79 from 265.26-0.18
2018-05-03New Short @262.26
2018-05-08closed short @266.5 from 262.26-1.62
2018-05-08New Long @266.5
2018-05-30closed long @270.5 from 266.51.5
2018-05-31New Long @272.15
2018-06-22closed long @275.66 from 272.151.29
2018-06-28New Short @269.29
2018-06-29closed short @272.12 from 269.29-1.05
2018-07-10New Long @278.41
2018-08-02closed long @279.39 from 278.410.35
2018-08-06New Long @283.64
2018-08-14closed long @282.92 from 283.64-0.25
2018-08-22New Long @285.88
2018-09-10closed long @288.74 from 285.881
2018-09-21New Long @293.09

Result:

  • TOTAL CUMMULATIVE: 67.8%
  • TOTAL BUY&HOLD: 160.83%