Trading can be very complex. Technical analysis can be very complex too. But they could be really simple, easy and clear. At chartmill we create tools that makes technical trading easy (and profitable!). When you are trading, there are typically 2 questions you need answered:
For answering these questions, we introduced the chartmill Technical Rating and the Setup Quality Rating. The analyzer nicely shows these ratings on a single page and also explains why the rating applies.
In this article we will demonstrate how these ratings can be used to answer the which and the when questions.
Which stock should I buy?
Well, in short you want your stock to be technically solid. For determining the technical health of a stock, we introduced the ‘Chartmill Technical Rating’. Every stock in our database has a technical rating assigned to it which is updated every day after the trading day. The technical rating is a simple number between 0 and 10 where 0 is assigned to the worst stocks and 10 to the bests. You can say:
Also note that the technical rating will not change to much on a day to day basis. Improvements in rating only happen gradually. The example below how the technical rating can evolve over time:
You can see that over time, the technical rating varied between 2 and 6 when the stock was going somewhat down and sideways. Very recently, the stock started improving and now we see a rating above 7.
When should I buy it?
So the technical rating tells you whether a stock is technically solid, where ‘solid’ means it is rising. However, just having a stock that rises is not a reason to just jump on it and buy it. What you need is a good entry point. You never want to jump on a stock that has just risen 10 or 20% as you will have a good chance that right after you buy, a correction will start. So you want to look for consolidation zones, where the stock has been trading in a stable range for some time and you want to buy when it starts its next move.
This is why we introduced the ‘Chartmill Setup Quality Rating’. The setup quality is also a number between 0 and 10 which indicates the level of consolidation we currently see in the stock. The higher the number, the more tight is has been trading in the recent period. When trading has been tight, it means you have a clear area of support and you can easily find a nice place to put your stop. ( = where you take a loss when the breakout does not happen).
Stock typically move in bursts: you have periods of fast progress and periods of consolidation. It is only in these breakout periods that we want to be in the stock, as this is where gains can be produced fast. A nice example can be found in the picture below:
The first indicator just below the chart is the historical chartmill setup quality rating, the last one is the historical technical rating. We can observe:
One important thing to note is that a high setup quality rating does not mean that you should just buy the stock immediately. It means there will be a nice place to be found on the chart for a buy stop order. You should only buy if the actual breakout also happens. (Sometimes the breakout point will never be reached and in this case you will also not loose anything, you only need to cancel your order).
A nice example of this approach is shown below:
In this case, the stock ATVI shows a nice consolidation pattern (setup quality of 9) and is a technically solid stock (technical rating of 9). The possible setups suggests an entry above 44.69 and an exit below the 10 day low. Depending on your trading style, you could even put the stop a bit tighter.
Give me more …
Good news! Chartmill provides fresh setups every day. You can easily find them in the ‘Today’s breakout setups‘ section in the Analyzer. The analyzer provides a full report on every stock, including: