Leslie Masonson @ BuyDontHold

Type: Long Term
Products: ETFs

Leslie N. Masonson, MBA, CCM, is President of Cash Management Resources, a financial consulting firm that he founded in 1987. Masonson’s 40-year working career has spanned financial advisory services, trading, investing, banking operations, management, teaching, and cash/treasury management consulting. He has written more than 50 articles - interviews with traders, and product and book reviews - for numerous financial publications, including Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Active Trader, and Futures Magazine.. He has lectured on investing on several cruise lines including Crystal, Celebrity, and Norwegian. In November 2003, he spoke at the Intershow Online Investor’s Expo, on “Successfully Trading Stocks for a Living.”

Why We Love BuyDontHold?

Not much time?
Not everyone has the time or energy to invest in a more active way in the markets. This easy to understand system is a great way to do this without having to worry about bear markets.

Not a risk taker
Leslie uses highly liquid ETFs to rotate his money into. You can do this too, without having to take huge risks in individual stock positions.

Buy Don't Hold - Leslie Masonson

On this page you can find the current condition of a stock market timing model as described in the book Buy—Don’t Hold: Investing with RTFs Using Relative Strength to Increase Returns with Less Risk by Leslie N. Masonson. The book presents a Dashboard which determines the state of the stock market based on relative strength and then invests in the best performing ETFs from a pre-selected universe, when the Dashboard provides a ‘BUY’ signal.

The book describes eight rules to determine the state of the market. Today and on his website Masonson has simplified the process and uses only four of the rules. We implemented very similar rules and added the 'stocks above SMA(50)' rule from the book which he currently does not use. Masonson also uses the NASDAQ Composite Index in rule #2, not the S&P 500 as we have done. He also uses a MACD confirmation signal in rule #8 which we have not done.


Rule Description Signal
1 % of stocks above their SMA 50. (chart) SELL
2 The S&P 500 Index and its 100 DMA. (chart) BUY
5 The MACD of the S&P500. (chart) SELL
8 The Nasdaq Summation Index and its EMA(5). (chart) BUY
6 AAII Bullish Inverstors Sentiment. (chart) BUY

 

Number of buy Signals: 3

The model is in BUY mode

Note:

  • Our implementation of the model uses the SPY ETF to check the MACD and the 100 DMA. Our SPY historical data goes back to 1993 while we have way less historical data for the Nasdaq Composite ETF(ONEQ)
  • You can manually check the MACD and 100SMA position of the Nasdaq Composite ETF here.

Quick SPY Backtest of the Signals

As we have the historical signals, we can easily do a quick test of just the market model signals.

Notes:

  • This test does not test the 'System' as described in the book.
  • The test does not select the strongest ETFs, it just enters and exits the SPY ETF with a full portfolio on signal changes.
  • The test does not use any stops, it only exits a position if the signal changes.
  • The test just verifies whether the Market Model is able to identify bear and bull periods in the market.
  • By default, the test goes short on a SELL signal. When 'don't short on SELL signal' is checked, the test will wait for the next buy signal.
  • By default, the test goes to cash on a change to a NEUTRAL signal. When 'stay in position on neutral' is checked, the test will wait for the next buy or sell signal to close the position.


StartDate: don't short on sell signal stay in position on neutral
DateActionResult
2010-01-05New Long @113.26
2010-01-22closed long @111.2 from 113.26-1.82
2010-01-27New Short @109.17
2010-01-28closed short @110.19 from 109.17-0.93
2010-01-29New Short @109.04
2010-02-03closed short @109.88 from 109.04-0.77
2010-02-05New Short @106.56
2010-02-16closed short @108.86 from 106.56-2.16
2010-02-17New Long @110.27
2010-04-05closed long @118.25 from 110.277.24
2010-04-06New Long @118.42
2010-05-03closed long @119.38 from 118.420.81
2010-05-07New Short @112.64
2010-05-11closed short @115.07 from 112.64-2.16
2010-05-11New Long @115.07
2010-05-17closed long @114.2 from 115.07-0.76
2010-05-18New Short @114.88
2010-06-04closed short @108.61 from 114.885.46
2010-06-07New Short @107.2
2010-06-14closed short @110.52 from 107.2-3.1
2010-06-15New Long @110.28
2010-06-25closed long @107.74 from 110.28-2.3
2010-06-29New Short @106.02
2010-07-09closed short @107.13 from 106.02-1.05
2010-07-12New Long @107.6
2010-08-12closed long @107.65 from 107.60.05
2010-08-12New Short @107.65
2010-09-03closed short @110.54 from 107.65-2.68
2010-09-03New Long @110.54
2010-10-05closed long @114.8 from 110.543.85
2010-10-06New Long @116.02
2010-10-21closed long @118.4 from 116.022.05
2010-11-01New Short @119.07
2010-11-04closed short @121.28 from 119.07-1.86
2010-11-05New Long @122.34
2010-11-15closed long @120.58 from 122.34-1.44
2010-11-16New Short @119.29
2010-12-06closed short @122.63 from 119.29-2.8
2010-12-07New Long @123.94
2010-12-31closed long @125.49 from 123.941.25
2011-01-06New Long @127.69
2011-01-10closed long @126.58 from 127.69-0.87
2011-01-10New Short @126.58
2011-01-13closed short @128.63 from 126.58-1.62
2011-01-14New Long @128.19
2011-01-20closed long @127.96 from 128.19-0.18
2011-01-21New Short @128.88
2011-01-28closed short @130.14 from 128.88-0.98
2011-01-31New Short @128.07
2011-02-04closed short @130.83 from 128.07-2.16
2011-02-09New Long @132.21
2011-02-23closed long @131.76 from 132.21-0.34
2011-02-24New Short @130.88
2011-03-28closed short @131.59 from 130.88-0.54
2011-03-29New Long @130.87
2011-04-13closed long @132.08 from 130.870.92
2011-04-14New Short @130.7
2011-04-25closed short @133.7 from 130.7-2.3
2011-04-26New Long @134.05
2011-05-05closed long @134.08 from 134.050.02
2011-05-09New Short @134.19
2011-06-01closed short @134.51 from 134.19-0.24
2011-06-02New Short @131.96
2011-06-21closed short @128.36 from 131.962.73
2011-06-23New Long @127.16
2011-07-28closed long @130.6 from 127.162.71
2011-08-05New Short @121.76
2011-08-25closed short @118.74 from 121.762.48
2011-08-29New Long @119.56
2011-09-12closed long @114.47 from 119.56-4.26
2011-09-15New Long @120.65
2011-09-23closed long @112.11 from 120.65-7.08
2011-09-23New Short @112.11
2011-09-30closed short @114.45 from 112.11-2.09
2011-10-03New Short @112.49
2011-10-07closed short @117.17 from 112.49-4.16
2011-10-07New Long @117.17
2011-11-18closed long @122.5 from 117.174.55
2011-11-18New Short @122.5
2011-12-01closed short @124.85 from 122.5-1.92
2011-12-02New Long @126.14
2011-12-15closed long @123.03 from 126.14-2.47
2011-12-20New Short @122.18
2011-12-21closed short @123.93 from 122.18-1.43
2011-12-27New Long @126.17
2012-02-01closed long @132.29 from 126.174.85
2012-02-06New Long @133.99
2012-02-16closed long @134.58 from 133.990.44
2012-02-22New Short @136.25
2012-03-15closed short @140.13 from 136.25-2.85
2012-03-15New Long @140.13
2012-03-23closed long @139.32 from 140.13-0.58
2012-03-23New Short @139.32
2012-03-27closed short @141.74 from 139.32-1.74
2012-03-27New Long @141.74
2012-03-29closed long @139.63 from 141.74-1.49
2012-03-30New Short @140.92
2012-04-27closed short @140.58 from 140.920.24
2012-04-27New Long @140.58
2012-05-07closed long @136.51 from 140.58-2.9
2012-05-07New Short @136.51
2012-05-30closed short @132.56 from 136.512.89
2012-05-31New Short @131.71
2012-06-07closed short @133.47 from 131.71-1.34
2012-06-08New Long @131.71
2012-07-24closed long @135.19 from 131.712.64
2012-07-25New Short @134.21
2012-07-27closed short @136.89 from 134.21-2
2012-07-27New Long @136.89
2012-09-27closed long @143.89 from 136.895.11
2012-11-08New Short @139.7
2012-11-20closed short @138.91 from 139.70.57
2012-11-23New Long @140.13
2012-12-31closed long @139.66 from 140.13-0.34
2013-01-03New Long @145.99
2013-02-21closed long @150.96 from 145.993.4
2013-02-22New Short @151.15
2013-03-06closed short @154.84 from 151.15-2.44
2013-03-07New Long @154.7
2013-03-20closed long @155.52 from 154.70.53
2013-03-22New Short @154.85
2013-04-11closed short @158.7 from 154.85-2.49
2013-04-16New Short @156.29
2013-04-19closed short @154.5 from 156.291.15
2013-04-26New Long @158.33
2013-06-03closed long @163.83 from 158.333.47
2013-06-25New Short @158.48
2013-06-26closed short @159.87 from 158.48-0.88
2013-07-02New Long @161.12
2013-08-01closed long @169.99 from 161.125.51
2013-08-02New Long @170.28
2013-08-07closed long @169.19 from 170.28-0.64
2013-08-30New Long @164.51
2013-09-03closed long @165.23 from 164.510.44
2013-09-04New Long @164.43
2013-10-09closed long @165.8 from 164.430.83
2013-10-11New Long @168.91
2013-11-01closed long @176.02 from 168.914.21
2013-11-08New Short @174.87
2013-11-15closed short @179.56 from 174.87-2.68
2013-11-21New Short @178.97
2013-11-25closed short @181.13 from 178.97-1.21
2013-11-25New Long @181.13
2013-12-03closed long @179.94 from 181.13-0.66
2013-12-10New Short @180.98
2013-12-23closed short @182.41 from 180.98-0.79
2013-12-24New Long @182.54
2014-01-07closed long @183.09 from 182.540.3
2014-01-14New Short @182.28
2014-01-15closed short @184.1 from 182.28-1
2014-01-27New Short @179.06
2014-02-12closed short @182.22 from 179.06-1.76
2014-02-14New Long @182.84
2014-03-14closed long @184.8 from 182.841.07
2014-03-14New Short @184.8
2014-04-03closed short @189.17 from 184.8-2.36
2014-04-07New Short @185.9
2014-04-22closed short @187.23 from 185.9-0.72
2014-04-23New Long @187.81
2014-04-28closed long @187.05 from 187.81-0.4
2014-05-19New Short @187.69
2014-05-23closed short @189.75 from 187.69-1.1
2014-05-23New Long @189.75
2014-06-17closed long @194.02 from 189.752.25
2014-06-19New Long @196.43
2014-06-24closed long @195.53 from 196.43-0.46
2014-06-25New Long @194.3
2014-07-09closed long @196.73 from 194.31.25
2014-07-10New Short @195.22
2014-08-13closed short @194.29 from 195.220.48
2014-08-15New Long @196.47
2014-09-10closed long @199.44 from 196.471.51
2014-09-15New Short @199.16
2014-10-06closed short @197.34 from 199.160.91
2014-10-08New Short @193.37
2014-10-09closed short @196.33 from 193.37-1.53
2014-10-10New Short @192.69
2014-10-22closed short @194.41 from 192.69-0.89
2014-10-23New Long @194.62
2014-12-02closed long @205.81 from 194.625.75
2014-12-04New Long @207.54
2014-12-09closed long @204.37 from 207.54-1.53
2014-12-10New Long @205.91
2014-12-11closed long @203.88 from 205.91-0.99
2014-12-17New Short @198.44
2014-12-18closed short @204.74 from 198.44-3.17
2014-12-22New Long @206.75
2015-01-07closed long @201.42 from 206.75-2.58
2015-01-07New Short @201.42
2015-01-08closed short @204.01 from 201.42-1.29
2015-01-16New Short @198.77
2015-01-20closed short @202.4 from 198.77-1.83
2015-01-23New Long @205.79
2015-01-29closed long @200.38 from 205.79-2.63
2015-01-29New Short @200.38
2015-01-30closed short @200.57 from 200.38-0.09
2015-02-03New Long @203
2015-03-26closed long @204.96 from 2030.97
2015-03-27New Short @205.13
2015-03-31closed short @207.26 from 205.13-1.04
2015-04-02New Short @205.62
2015-04-06closed short @205.37 from 205.620.12
2015-04-06New Long @205.37
2015-04-09closed long @207.78 from 205.371.17
2015-04-10New Long @209.2
2015-05-01closed long @209.4 from 209.20.1
2015-05-05New Long @211.03
2015-05-06closed long @209.56 from 211.03-0.7
2015-05-15New Long @212.45
2015-06-09closed long @208.45 from 212.45-1.88
2015-06-19New Long @211.46
2015-06-30closed long @207.26 from 211.46-1.99
2015-07-06New Short @205.77
2015-07-10closed short @207.29 from 205.77-0.74
2015-07-13New Long @208.99
2015-08-05closed long @210.45 from 208.990.7
2015-08-06New Long @210.29
2015-08-07closed long @208.16 from 210.29-1.01
2015-08-11New Long @208.97
2015-08-12closed long @207.11 from 208.97-0.89
2015-08-14New Long @208.43
2015-08-24closed long @187.49 from 208.43-10.05
2015-09-09New Long @199.32
2015-09-10closed long @194.56 from 199.32-2.39
2015-09-11New Long @195.38
2015-09-29closed long @188.27 from 195.38-3.64
2015-10-05New Long @196.46
2015-12-21closed long @201.41 from 196.462.52
2015-12-23New Long @204.69
2016-01-08closed long @195.19 from 204.69-4.64
2016-01-08New Short @195.19
2016-01-29closed short @190.02 from 195.192.65
2016-01-29New Long @190.02
2016-02-11closed long @182.34 from 190.02-4.04
2016-02-12New Short @184.96
2016-02-17closed short @191.16 from 184.96-3.35
2016-02-17New Long @191.16
2016-05-06closed long @204.06 from 191.166.75
2016-05-26New Long @209.44
2016-06-24closed long @203.63 from 209.44-2.77
2016-06-27New Short @201.59
2016-06-30closed short @207.21 from 201.59-2.79
2016-07-01New Long @209.36
2016-09-23closed long @216.72 from 209.363.52
2016-09-26New Long @215.02
2016-09-27closed long @214.05 from 215.02-0.45
2016-09-28New Long @215.83
2016-10-12closed long @213.59 from 215.83-1.04
2016-10-20New Long @213.87
2016-10-21closed long @212.96 from 213.87-0.43
2016-10-21New Short @212.96
2016-10-25closed short @214.68 from 212.96-0.81
2016-10-25New Long @214.68
2016-10-26closed long @213.21 from 214.68-0.68
2016-10-31New Short @212.93
2016-11-09closed short @212.37 from 212.930.26
2016-11-10New Long @217.3

Result:

  • TOTAL CUMMULATIVE: 87.73%
  • TOTAL BUY&HOLD: 101.77%